Relief Rally Continues

Market Setup
Gift Nifty was down of 80 points at 6.30 IST today. 

On Thursday, the Dow fell 427 points, NASDAQ 483 points, and the S&P 500 added 104 points. In the Asian trade today, the Nikkei 225 fell 843 points and the Kospi by 20 points. Dow futures gained by 86 points, Nasdaq futures by 103 points and the Hang Seng futures jumped 144 points.

Taking cues from Gift Nifty, Nifty will open at about Thursday’s close of 22460. 

FIIs Thursday sold ₹23.77 billion of stock in the cash market . There is still no respite in selling by FII at any level. Though domestic institutions ₹16.18 billion of stock in the cash market, participation of retail was seen in the cash market . With addition of long Index futures and shorting Index options, FII were neutral in the derivative segment during Thursday’s trade. Taking into account the overall data, FII will likely carry a bearish sentiment in Indian Markets today. 

Thursday, Nifty50 rebounded 300 points from its intra day lows to close above 10 DEMA of 22475.. Nifty50 had also gave a convincing close above 20 Monthly Exponential Moving Average of 22389.  Today, Nifty50 is expected to open around 20 Weekly Exponential Moving Average. Nifty50 may take support and bounce from this level in initial trades. Important averages will act as a support at their respective levels. A range bound day can be expected between 22400 to 22600 . India Vix has risen to 13.73 but is well within the comfortable zone. 

On Thursday, Nifty Bank did not share the momentum witnessed in the Nifty50. FII were bearish in Index futures in Nifty Bank. Today, though the data suggests a range bound day, an up move can be expected in Nifty Bank. 

The 20 Monthly Exponential Moving Average at 48249,will be a strong support and 10 DEMA at 48637 will be the resistance. With 1.223 million puts, 48000 is the put writers’ support. With 1.322 million calls, 49000 is the call writers resistance. On the lower side,47881 levels are open, which is the swing low of Jan 27, 2025. 

Previous Session
Spot
Nifty50 opened up by 139 points at 22,476, while Bank Nifty opened 4 points higher at 48,760.
Selling pressure was seen in Nifty50 from the opeing otself. Nifty50 reached its intraday low of 22245. Buying emereged from this level to push Nifty50 higher. The Nifty50 took some resistanc at 10 DEMA of 22475 to take a slight dip to rise once again to finally breach the important level of 10 DEMA. Nifty50 reached its intra day high of 22556 to finnaly close the at 22544 with a gain of 207 points. Of the Nifty 50, 42 stocks closed the day in the green.

Nifty Bank also moved in tandem with Nifty50. After opening higher, Nifty Bank sank to its intra day low 48229. As predicted Thursday, Nifty Bank took support from 20 Monthly Exponential Moving Average of 48209 to rebound to make an intra day high of 48839 and to finally close the day at 48627. Nifty Bank did breach the important level of 10 DEMA during intra day trades but was not successful in giving a close above 10 DEMA. It closed just 10 points lower to 10 DEMA.  Nine out of 12 Nifty Bank stocks closed the day in green.
 
Options Chain
Nifty50 (expiry March 13)
As Thursday was the weekly expiry of  Nifty50 contracts, not much can be read into the option chain. On viewing the option chain formed till now, the conviction of put writers is substantially more than the call writers. This very evident from the bar pyramid chart with substantial put writing is present compared to the call writing on respective sides. With 5.263 million puts, 22500 is the major Support. With 3.443 million calls, 22800 is the initial resistance and with 4.867 million calls, 23000 will be act as a major resistance. The implied volatilit on the put side is 14.48 and 10.01 on the call side.

Nifty Bank (expiry March 27)
The option chain did not changemuch from  Wednesday. It is still very evenly placed between call and put writers. Some additional call and put wrting has taken place at evry strike on the either side. With 1.233 million puts, 48000 is the major support and with 1.322 million calls, 49000 is the major resistance. The implied volatility on the put side is 16.53 and 13.63 on the call side.

Sensex (expiry March 11)
Call and put wriritng positions have been created on respective side. The option chain is very evenly placed between the call and put writers. With 0.552 million puts, 74000 is the major support and with 0.492 million calls, 75000 is the major resistance. The IV on the put side is 14.31 and is 9.91 on the call side.

Support and Resistance
 - Nifty50: Major support at 22500; major resistance at 22800
 - Nifty Bank: Major support at 48000; major resistance at 49000.
 - Sensex: Major support at 74000; major resistance at 75000.

Put-call ratio; at-the-money
 - Nifty50: Overall 1.10; ATM 0.93 (neutral to bullish)
 - Nifty Bank: Overall 1.0; ATM 1.12 (neutral to bullish)
- Sensex: Overall 1.4; ATM 0.98 (neutral to bullish)