Nifty Tops 22,800 In Biggest Rally In Two Months

Key Highlights:
• Varun Beverages gains 5% driven by expectations of strong summer demand.
• PB Fintech shares soar 7% after upgrade by Kotak
• Shilpa Medicare rises 2% after its subsidiary partners with Swiss-based mAbTree Biologics for a cancer drug.
• LIC CEO confirms final-stage discussions to acquire a stake in a health insurance company.
• Suryoday Small Finance Bank jumps 7% after the promoter-CEO increases stake in the lender.

Equity markets witnessed a robust rally today, recording their largest single-day gain in nearly two months. The benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, surged to a one-month high, led by strong performances in auto, banking, and metal stocks.

The rally was broad-based, with all sectoral indices closing in positive territory. The Nifty Midcap index rose 2%, while the Smallcap index surged 3%. Market breadth remained overwhelmingly positive, with an advance-decline ratio of 4:1.

 

SECTORAL PERFORMANCE 
All major sectoral indices posted strong gains:
• Top performers included Nifty Auto, Banking, PSU Banking, FMCG, and Metal, all rising between 1.5% and 2%.
• Nifty Pharma, Consumer Durables, and Energy also gained over 1%.
• Sugar stocks surged due to concerns over a potential supply shortage. Shares of leading companies such as Uttam Sugar, Dhampur Sugar Mills, Rana Sugars, EID Parry India, and Balrampur Chini Mills soared by up to 20%.

Top Gainers	% Change	Top Losers	% Change
NIFTY MEDIA	3.62%
NIFTY REALTY	3.16%
NIFTY CONSUMER DURABLES	2.62%
NIFTY AUTO	2.38%
NIFTY METAL	2.13%

 

Yields on 10-year government bonds eased by 2 basis points, driven by strong demand at the state loan auction and better-than-expected cut-offs at the RBI’s bond purchases.

States borrowed ₹526 billion through bond sales at cut-off yields, which were 6-8 basis points lower than market estimates.
The RBI purchased bonds worth ₹500 billion via open market operations.

Tenure	Today	Previous
10-year Gilt	6.67%	6.69%
5-year gilt	6.59%	6.60%
5-year OIS	5.95%	5.95%

The Indian rupee appreciated by 0.2%, closing at a three-week high against the US dollar. This was supported by likely dollar inflows and continued weakness in the greenback.
Exporters have been selling dollars ahead of the financial year-end on 31st March.
The US dollar weakened due to disappointing economic data and uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade policies. The dollar index declined by nearly 0.2%.

Unit	Today	Previous
Dollar/Rupee	86.57	86.80
Dollar Index	102.99	103.01
1-year Dollar/rupee premium (%)	2.15%	2.16%

OUTLOOK
Indian equity markets are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with no clear breakout or breakdown. Attention is now shifting to the Federal Reserve’s March FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors widely anticipate that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25–4.5%, with focus also on the Fed’s updated economic projections.

Additionally, markets will monitor any developments from a phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.

The rupee is likely to stay supported as concerns over a slowing US economy weigh on the dollar, while year-end dollar sales by exporters provide further stability. The expected trading range for Wednesday is 86.40–86.80, pending the outcome of the US FOMC meeting.

Key Events & Data Due Wednesday
Economic Data:
- Japan February Trade Data
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data
- US Weekly Crude Oil Inventories

Corporate Actions:
 - Ksolves India board to consider dividend
 - Mishra Dhatu Nigam board to consider dividend
 - REC board to consider dividend
 - Indian Overseas Bank board to discuss fundraising plans
 - NHPC board to discuss fundraising plans
 - Dhanlaxmi Bank board to discuss fundraising plans
 - GVP Infotech board to discuss fundraising plans
 - Tata Motors board to discuss fundraising plans

Policy:
- Bank of Japan policy meeting outcome
- US FOMC policy meeting outcome
- European Central Bank (ECB) Speeches:
  -Vice President Luis de Guindos
  - Executive Board Member Frank Elderson