GLOBAL MOOD: Cautiously Risk OnDrivers: IMF growth upgrade, Weaker earnings, Softer US jobs data Global markets showed a mixed but slightly positive tone on Tuesday, supported by an IMF upgrade to emerging market growth forecasts and progress in US-China trade talks. However, sentiment remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and key corporate earnings. TODAY’S WATCHLIST - US Fed interest rate decision - Earnings: Punjab National Bank, Hyundai Motor India, Tata Steel THE BIG STORYThe IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast for emerging economies to 4.1% from 3.7%, citing stronger momentum in China and a more supportive global backdrop. India’s outlook was also lifted to 6.4% from 6.2%, while developed economies are expected to see slower growth. Meanwhile, US and Chinese officials concluded two days of trade talks in Stockholm ahead of the 12 August tariff truce deadline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the discussions constructive and said an extension of the truce remains an option, pending President Trump’s decision. Data SpotlightUS job openings fell to 7.44 million in June, down 275,000 from May and below expectations of 7.55 million. Declines were concentrated in accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance, while openings rose in retail, information, and education. Hires and separations were little changed. Separately, US crude oil inventories rose by 1.54 million barrels in the week ending 25 July, reversing the previous week’s drawdown. The unexpected build contrasted with forecasts of a 2.5-million-barrel decline, briefly tempering oil market sentiment. Takeaway: The latest data shows a cooling US labour market with fewer job openings, signalling that hiring demand is easing but not collapsing. Meanwhile, the surprise build in crude inventories highlights near-term volatility in oil supply. WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT US stocks retreat from record highs on weak earnings US stocks fell on Tuesday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back from record highs. Disappointing earnings weighing on sentiment ahead of the Fed policy statement. UnitedHealth tumbled 7.5% on a weak profit forecast, leading declines in the Dow, while Boeing fell 4.4% despite narrowing its quarterly loss. US Treasury yields fall ahead of Fed decision after weak jobs data Yields dropped sharply on Tuesday as a softer-than-expected June job openings report and caution ahead of the Fed’s policy decision spurred safe-haven buying. The 10-year yield fell 9.8 bps to 4.322%, while the 30-year yield declined 10.7 bps to 4.858%. US dollar climbs to one-month high against euro on trade deals The Dollar Index rose 0.27% to 98.88 on Tuesday, as a series of new US trade agreements boosted the greenback. The euro fell 0.31% to $1.1552, its lowest level since 23 June, on track for a fourth consecutive day of losses as markets viewed the US-EU trade deal as favouring the US economy. Crude oil prices surge on geopolitical tensions and trade optimism Brent jumped 3.53% to $72.51 per barrel, while WTI gained 3.75% to $69.21, both settling at their highest since 20 June. Prices climbed after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned China could face higher tariffs if it continues purchasing Russian crude oil, following two days of what he described as “very constructive” trade talks in Stockholm. Additional support came from President Trump’s increased pressure on Russia over the war in Ukraine and easing global trade tensions. Day’s Ledger Economic Data: Euro GDP Growth Rate Euro July Services Sentiment US API Crude Oil Stock Change US ADP Employment Change US Pending Home Sales Corporate Actions: Earnings: BASF India, Birla Corp, CESC, Computer Age, Fino Payments Bank, Firstsource Solutions, Greaves Cotton, HEG, Hyundai Motor India, IIFL Finance, Indraprastha Gas, InterGlobe Aviation, Jaiprakash Power, Power Grid, Punjab National Bank, Redington, Tata Steel, Thomas Cook, Zydus Wellness Davangere Sugar to consider fund raising ITI to consider fund raising Jio Financial to consider fund raising NHPC to consider fund raising Policy Events: US Fed Interest Rate Decision Bank of Japan two-day policy meeting starts Tickers to Watch Amber Enterprises net profit up 44% YoY to ₹1.04 billion; revenue jumped 44% YoY to ₹34.49 billion. Asian Paints net profit down 6% YoY to ₹11 billion; urban demand showed slight recovery. Bank of India net profit rose 32% YoY to ₹22.52 billion on strong trading gains; NII down 3% YoY. Blue Dart Express net profit fell 9% YoY to ₹469.3 mln on higher other expenses. Brigade Enterprises Signed JDAs for Citadel 2 & 3 projects in Hyderabad with ₹9.7 billion potential revenue. GAIL (India) to form JV with Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut to transfer 600MW of gas plants, set up 1GW renewable energy. GE Vernova net profit doubled YoY to ₹2.91 billion in Q1; revenue rose nearly 39% to ₹13.3 billion. L&T net profit up 30% YoY to ₹36.2 billion; revenue up 16% to ₹636.8 billion. L&T Bagged an “ultra-mega” offshore order worth over ₹150 billion from West Asia client. NTPC standalone net profit up 5.85% YoY to ₹47.74 billion; revenue fell 4.2%. Piramal Enterprises net profit rose 52% YoY to ₹2.76 billion on higher interest and dividend income. Star Health net profit fell 18% YoY to ₹2.63 billion; underwriting profit halved on higher claims. V-Guard Industries to enter lighting business and merge Sunflame Enterprises with itself for operational synergy. Welspun Corp net profit jumped 41% YoY to ₹3.5 billion; revenue rose 13% to ₹35.51 billion. Must Read IMF raises India's GDP growth projection by 20 bps to 6.4% for FY26 India's trade talks with the US face new test as EU deal shows major gaps Ambani family may infuse up to ₹10,000 cr in Jio Financial Services Unethical practices by some banks, NBFCs risk eroding public trust: RBI DG Mkt regulator Sebi opens door to fractional shares in innovation sandbox SC to hear pleas seeking review of verdict on Bhushan Steel liquidation RBI eases investment regulations for banks and NBFCs in AIF schemes India's top 18 states' revenues to edge up 7-9% in FY26, says CRISIL US, China resume talks in Stockholm to ease tariff hostilities Trump slashed federal funding for gun violence prevention See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge. Have a great trading day. The BSE stock exchange did not provide simultaneous and equal access to corporate disclosures, instead favouring a few insiders and those with privileged access. Krishnadevan Vijayaraghavan writes, market regulator SEBI found this out, and gave an apologetic ₹2.5 mln penalty rap on the BSE’s knuckle. Regulatory action has been more stringent on other violators, but a Market Intermediary Institution gets away with far less for a bigger travesty.
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