India’s growth and inflation outlook for 2025-26 has been marked lower after the US imposed sweeping reciprocal tariffs on imports. QuantEco Research revised its GDP growth estimate down by 30 basis points to 6.4%, and trimmed its inflation forecast by 20 basis points to 4.1%, citing both direct trade impacts and broader global spillovers.The headline impact stems from President Donald Trump’s Executive Order, which imposes a 10% universal tariff from April 5, 2025 and an additional 27% tariff on Indian goods from Apr 9, 2025. India’s export earnings could fall by $10 billion–$15 billion, equivalent to 0.2–0.3% of GDP. Though this drag could be partly offset by higher tariff burdens on competitors such as China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, the global demand hit will weigh on the outlook.
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