India’s growth outlook for 2025–26 remains respectable on paper, but the global context is turning less forgiving. As the world economy cools, geopolitical tensions simmer, and financial markets wobble, policymakers will need to manage a complex balancing act to preserve domestic momentum.While headline forecasts suggest only a modest moderation from 6.5% in 2024–25 to 6.4% in 2025–26, according to QuantEco Research, the composition of risks around that baseline deserves closer attention. For all the talk of decoupling, India’s economy remains inextricably tied to the world. The last 25 years show a 71% correlation between India’s GDP growth and that of the global economy. When the world slows, India feels it.
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