IMD Sees Below-Normal Monsoon Rains for 2026; Rainfall Likely at 92% of Average

The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday said the southwest monsoon for 2026 is likely to be below normal, with rainfall estimated at 92% of the long-period average, raising concerns over farm output and inflation.

“The 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be below normal,” IMD said in its long-range forecast.

Rainfall during the June-September season is expected to be in the range of 90-95% of the long-period average, with a margin of error of 5% on both sides, according to IMD.

The weather office said changing conditions in the Pacific Ocean are likely to influence the monsoon. “The forecast suggests the development of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season,” IMD said. 

At present, conditions are shifting from a weak La Niña phase to neutral, but could turn warmer during the monsoon months, it said.

La Niña typically brings cooler ocean temperatures in the Pacific and is often associated with stronger monsoon rainfall in India, while El Niño tends to have the opposite effect, weakening rains. The monsoon is crucial for India as it provides about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall, supports agriculture, replenishes reservoirs, and drives rural demand and overall economic activity.

IMD added that rainfall may not be uniform across the country, with below-normal rainfall likely over many regions, while some parts of northeast, northwest and southern India could see normal to above-normal rains.

The department also noted that ocean conditions in the Indian Ocean could turn favourable later in the season, which may partly support rainfall.

IMD will issue an updated forecast in the last week of May, it said.

The southwest monsoon is critical for India’s agriculture and overall economy, as India has poor irrigation facilities in most parts of the country. Also, the irrigation that is available is heavily dependent on monsoon rains.