GLOBAL MOOD: Cautiously Risk-OnDrivers: Potential Putin–Trump Meeting, US–India–China Trade Tensions, Slowing US Job Growth Markets leaned mildly risk-on as hopes for a Putin–Trump meeting lifted diplomacy bets and eased oil prices, but caution lingered from weak US data, drug and tech disappointments, and ongoing uncertainty over Fed leadership. TODAY’S WATCHLIST - BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks - Fed Musalem speaks - Earnings: Grasim Industries, State Bank of India, Tata Motors THE BIG STORYRussian President Vladimir Putin may meet US President Donald Trump next week, Russia’s deputy UN envoy Dmitry Polyanskiy said on Thursday, noting that potential locations were being kept under wraps. While no meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is planned, a Putin–Trump summit would mark the first such encounter between US and Russian leaders since Putin’s meeting with former President Joe Biden in Geneva in 2021. The discussions come amid heightened geopolitical tensions and renewed speculation over a possible diplomatic shift in the Ukraine conflict. Separately, S&P Global affirmed China’s long-term, short-term, and local currency sovereign credit ratings at A+ with a “stable” outlook, citing robust fiscal stimulus as a key driver of economic resilience despite ongoing property sector stress and tariff pressures. The ratings agency expects China’s growth to return to 4% or more annually within the next two years, warning that significantly larger fiscal stimulus could trigger a downgrade, while faster-than-expected fiscal consolidation could lead to an upgrade. DATA SPOTLIGHTThe latest US jobless claims data shows the labour market remains relatively stable despite slowing job growth. Initial claims rose by 7,000 to 226,000 in the week ending 2 August, the highest in a month and above expectations of 221,000. While hiring has cooled down and it’s taking longer for laid-off workers to find new roles, employers are avoiding large-scale layoffs, helping keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.2% in July. Takeaway: The data shows that while US job growth is slowing and re-employment is taking longer, employers are still avoiding mass layoffs, keeping the labour market broadly stable. WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT US stocks mixed as drug and tech disappointments weigh on Dow, S&P The Dow and S&P 500 slipped on Thursday, dragged by a 14.1% drop in Eli Lilly after disappointing data from its oral weight-loss drug, despite raising its annual outlook. Intel fell 3.1% following Trump’s call for the resignation of CEO Lip-Bu Tan over China ties. Nasdaq closed at a record high, supported by a 3.2% gain in Apple after Trump’s 100% semiconductor tariff threat largely spared major industry player. US Treasury yields edge up after weak 30-year bond auction US Treasury yield rose modestly on Thursday as a soft 30-year bond auction extended the trend of tepid demand in recent debt sales. The 10-year yield climbed 1 bps to 4.242%, while the 30-year yield gained 1.1 bps to 4.8221%. Despite the uptick, the 10-year yield remains near its three-month low of 4.19%, as slowing economic data continues to strengthen expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts this year. US dollar firms as Fed’s Waller seen as top contender for chair The Dollar Index rose 0.18% to 98.36 on Thursday after reports that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is a leading candidate for Fed chair in Trump’s team. The dollar edged 0.1% higher against the yen to 147.49. Sterling gained after the Bank of England cut rates by 25 bps but saw more dissenting votes to hold than expected. Crude oil extends losing streak on hopes for Russia-US talks Brent crude prices fell for a sixth straight session on Thursday as news of an imminent meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump fuelled hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine war. Brent crude settled down 0.7% at $66.43 a barrel, while WTI fell 0.7% to $63.88. Expectations of easing geopolitical tensions outweighed underlying supply concerns, adding pressure to crude markets. Day’s Ledger Economic Data: US Fed Balance Sheet India Foreign Exchange Reserves Corporate Action: Earnings: Grasim Industries, IFCI, Info Edge India, JK Tyre, Lemon Tree, Manappuram Finance, Shipping Corporation, Siemens, State Bank of India, Tata Motors, Voltas, Wockhardt Sandur Manganese to consider bonus share issue Policy Events: BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks Fed Musalem speaks Tickers to Watch BIOCON reports consolidated net profit of ₹314 million, significantly down from ₹6.60 billion YoY. CE INFO SYSTEMS posts consolidated PAT of ₹461.1 million, down from ₹485.7 million QoQ. GIC posts net profit of ₹17.52 billion, up from ₹10.36 billion YoY. GODREJ CONSUMER records consolidated PAT of ₹4.52 billion, nearly flat compared to ₹4.51 billion YoY. HPCL posts a sharp rise in net profit to ₹43.71 billion from ₹3.56 billion YoY. KALPATARU PROJECTS sees net profit rise to ₹2.01 billion from ₹1.17 billion YoY. KALYAN JEWELLERS reports consolidated PAT of ₹2.64 billion, up from ₹1.78 billion YoY. LIC reports net profit of ₹109.87 billion, up from ₹104.61 billion YoY. NLC INDIA posts consolidated net profit of ₹7.98 billion, up from ₹5.59 billion YoY. OIL INDIA and IREL sign MoU to collaborate on critical minerals development. PIRAMAL PHARMA reports inventory loss worth ₹450 million due to a fire incident. RBI grants in-principle approval to AU SMALL FINANCE BANK to transition into a universal bank. SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC sees PAT decline to ₹412.40 million from ₹484.80 million YoY. SUN TV reports net profit of ₹5.29 billion, slightly down from ₹5.47 billion YoY. TITAN delivers net profit of ₹10.30 billion, up from ₹7.70 billion YoY. MUST READ Fed’s Bostic sees one cut in 2025 as tariff effects may persist Rahul Gandhi accuses EC, BJP of poll fraud Fluctuating tariffs, geopolitical strains hit energy demand, margins: RIL IT sector braces for slower growth trajectory as US tariff tensions mount Kremlin confirms plans for Putin-Trump meet; White House says talks ongoing Medical devices industry raises concerns over additional 25% US tariff Pharma Inc mulls offshore strategy as US tariff fears hit sentiment Stagflation concerns ripple through Wall Street as tariffs hit Trump to sign order targeting banks on political discrimination US tariff hike halts Indian textile exports as major retailers pause orders Waller emerges as favourite for Fed Chair among Trump team See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge. Have a great trading day. RBI Pauses, Rightly, But October May Cut Through Uncertainty RBI has rightly paused the rates in the latest policy. It had all the reasons to do so. But looking ahead, the October MPC meeting will be a live one, with critical data points expected on both the domestic economy and the external front, particularly regarding tariff developments. The former Economic Advisor at Finance Ministry, Srinivasa Nagarjuna writes if April-June growth data disappoints, a 25-bps rate cut is possible in October 2025.
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