India’s fiscal math looks strong on the surface. Goods and Services Tax collections have surged in recent months, with April and May receipts reaching ₹4.4 trillion. Alongside a record ₹2.69 trillion surplus transfer from the Reserve Bank of India, this buoyant revenue is being cited as proof of resilient growth. It also lends credence to the surprisingly strong 7.4% real GDP growth in the January–March quarter.GST collections have risen not because of a vibrant economy, but due to rising tax incidence in the midst of a slowdown. That distinction matters.
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