GLOBAL MOOD: Risk OnDrivers: Trade Deals Momentum, Upbeat Corporate Earnings Investor mood got a lift as the US and EU inched closer to a trade deal, cooling nerves over rising tariff tensions. Big names like GE Vernova and Nvidia rallied, Treasury yields ticked up, and major indices gained. Still, some caution lingered with markets watching for final deal confirmation and any EU pushback. TODAY’S WATCHLIST- ECB Interest Rate Announcement- US Unemployment Insurance Claims Data- Earnings: Bajaj Finance, SBI Life Insurance, Nestle India, ACC THE BIG STORYThe US and European Union are reportedly closing in on a big trade deal that could slap a 15% tariff on most imports including cars and pharma, Bloomberg reported citing diplomats. The plan looks a lot like the recent US-Japan agreement and leaves out sectors like aircraft, lumber, some meds, and farm goods. While EU officials have filled in member states, Trump has the final say. In response, the EU is lining up a counter-tariff package worth €93 billion, with a vote set for Thursday. Any action wouldn’t kick in before August 7. Trump, for his part, said trade talks are moving seriously and hinted he might cut tariffs if the EU plays fair and opens up to US firms DATA SPOTLIGHTJapan’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in July, with the S&P Global PMI falling to 48.8 from 50.1 in June. Output and new orders declined sharply as businesses reacted to growing uncertainty around US tariffs. In contrast, the services sector expanded at its fastest pace in five months, supported by resilient domestic demand. In the US, existing home sales dropped 2.7% in June to a nine-month low of 3.93 million units. Higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continued to keep buyers on the sidelines, reinforcing concerns over a deepening housing slowdown. Inventory rose nearly 16% year-on-year, suggesting persistent softness in residential investment heading into Q3. Takeaway: The latest data highlights diverging trends across major economies - US housing market continues to weaken under the weight of high mortgage rates and economic caution, pointing to limited support from residential investment in the near term. WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT US Stocks hit fresh highs on trade optimism, strong earnings US Stocks rallied on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs amid signs of progress in EU-US trade talks. GE Vernova surged 14.6% to an all-time high after raising revenue and free cash flow guidance and beating Q2 estimates. Nvidia rose 2.25%, fuelling tech-led gains; Tesla edged up 0.14% ahead of its earnings release. US Treasury yields rebound on trade optimism Yields rose, snapping a three-day losing streak, as improved sentiment around trade talks spurred a modest risk-on shift. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed 5.2 bps to 4.388%, while the 30-year yield rose 4.1 bps to 4.944%. US dollar mixed as trade deal optimism offsets political jitters The dollarindex fell 0.27% to 97.20 on Wednesday as market optimism from a new US trade deal was partially offset by political uncertainty in Japan. The euro edged up 0.18% to $1.1774, while the yen gained 0.1%, pushing the dollar down to 146.48. Oil prices steady amid EU-US trade developments Brent crude slipped 0.12% to settle at $68.51 per barrel, while WTI edged down 0.09% to $65.25. Crude oil prices were little changed as investors weighed fresh trade developments between the US and the European Union. Day’s Ledger Economic Data: Reserve Bank of Australia Monthly Bulletin Euro July Composite, Manufacturing, Services PMI India July Composite, Manufacturing, Services PMI US Unemployment Insurance Claims Data Corporate Actions: Apr-Jun earnings: ACC, Adani Energy Solutions, Aditya Birla AMC, Bajaj Finance, Canara Bank, Capital Small Finance Bank, CG Power, Coromandel International, Hexaware Technologies, Indian Bank, Karur Vysya Bank, Nestle India, Phoenix Mills, REC, SBI Life Insurance Co, Supreme Industries, Suryoday Small Finance Bank, Trident, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, UTI AMC, V-Mart Retail. Axel Polymers to consider fund raising Bajaj Consumer to consider share buyback GHV Infra to consider bonus share issue and stock split Kesar Enterprises to consider stock split Muthoot Capital to consider NCDs issue Axel Polymers to consider fund raising Policy Events: ECB Interest Rate Announcement IMF Regular Press Briefing TICKERS TO WATCH ANGEL ONE: To enter life insurance via JV with LivWell; to invest over ₹1 billion for 26% stake. BAJAJ HOUSING FINANCE: Net profit rises 21% YoY to ₹5.83 billion on strong interest income. BEML: Bags ₹2.94 billion defence order for High Mobility Vehicle supply. DALMIA BHARAT: PAT more than doubles YoY to ₹3.93 billion. To invest ₹32.57 billion to expand capacity in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. DR REDDY’S: Net profit rises 2% YoY to ₹14.18 billion; misses estimates as costs outpace revenue. EXIDE INDUSTRIES: Invests ₹1 billion in lithium-ion battery arm Exide Energy. FORTIS HEALTHCARE: To manage five Gleneagles hospitals under new O&M services agreement. GLENMARK PHARMA: India Ratings revises outlook to 'positive', affirms 'AA' rating. INDUSIND BANK: Approves ₹200 billion fundraise via debt, ₹100 billion capital plan through QIPs. INFOSYS: Net profit rises 9% YoY to ₹69.2 billion; revenue growth muted due to North America. In deal with US-based AGCO to enhance IT infra and HR operations. INOX WIND: To raise ₹12.49 billion via rights issue at 28% discount; record date set for Jul. 29. JSW INFRASTRUCTURE: Consolidated PAT jumps 31.5% YoY to ₹3.85 billion. KAJARIA CERAMICS: Consolidated PAT rises 21.3% YoY to ₹1.09 billion. KEI INDUSTRIES: PAT climbs 30.3% YoY to ₹1.96 billion. MARUTI SUZUKI: Hikes XL6 prices by up to 0.8% after adding six airbags as standard. M&M FINANCIAL SERVICES: PAT up 3% YoY; disbursement growth slows. NATCO PHARMA: To invest ₹41 billion in South Africa; buys 35.75% in Adcock Ingram, sets up subsidiary. PERSISTENT SYSTEMS: PAT up 7.2% QoQ to ₹4.25 billion; revenue rises 2.7% to ₹33.34 billion. RITES: Signs MoU with CMPDI to jointly pursue mining and renewable energy projects. SRF: PAT jumps 71% YoY to ₹4.32 billion; revenue rises 10% to ₹38.19 billion. TATA CONSUMER: PAT up 15.1% YoY to ₹3.3 billion on strong tea and salt sales. UNITED BREWERIES: PAT rises 6% YoY to ₹1.84 billion. VEDANTA: Named preferred bidder for iron ore mine in Janthakal, Karnataka. MUST READ ED files plaint against fintech firm SIMPL for FDI policy violation European Union readies €100 bn no-deal plan to match US 30% tariff ED files FEMA case against Myntra over ₹16.54-billion FDI policy breach Public sector banks cut rates more than private peers: RBI report India’s Oil Inflation Risk Demands Stronger Fiscal Safeguards Household Inflation Expectations Call for Smarter Surveys, Sharper Strategy RIL's oil procurement under scrutiny as EU warns refiners using Russia oil NSE issues retail algo trading rulebook, mandates strategy registration US and EU close in on 15% tariff deal: Report Goldman Sachs sees Trump’s baseline tariff rate rising to 15% See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge. Have a great trading day. The US–Indonesia trade deal is heavily tilted in Washington’s favor, exposing Jakarta to sweeping market access demands, diluted regulations, and reduced policy sovereignty. It offers India a cautionary tale: avoid rushed concessions under pressure. Ajay Srivastava writes, for New Delhi, the message is clear: bargain hard, assess trade-offs transparently, and ensure that sovereignty and long-term interests are not compromised for short-term diplomatic gains.
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