Equities Slip; Rupee Recoups More Losses 

Highlights
•    Cabinet approves ₹250 billion electronics PLI scheme
•    BSE shares soar 16% as NSE defers Monday expiry plans amid SEBI's consultation paper 
•    ITC Hotels shares jump 6%, scales to new high on Macquarie's "outperform" rating
•    Cyient DLM shares rally 8% on bagging upgrade from Kotak Institutional Equities 
•    LIC conducting due diligence on three health insurers,

The benchmark equity indices ended lower with auto and information technology stocks under pressure amid concern over looming US tariffs.

However, BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 indices rose more than 0.5% each this week, and for the month both the indices added 6%. The BSE Midcap and the BSE Smallcap indices unperformed and closed the week in negative territory.

Indian markets continued to see positive sentiment from foreign investors. Post persistent selling over the past many month, FPIs have turned net buyers over the past few days.

 SECTORAL PERFORMANCE 
Among sectors, except FMCG, all other indices ended in the red with IT, auto, realty and Media down 1-2% percent.

Top Gainers	% Change	Top Losers	% Change
NIFTY FMCG	0.59%	NIFTY MEDIA	-2.29%
		NIFTY IT	-1.76%
		NIFTY REALTY	-1.42%
		NIFTY AUTO	-1.03%
		NIFTY METAL	-0.73%

Yields on 10-year Indian government bond ended 2 basis point lower on the last working day of the financial year. The 10-year gilts yield fell 15 basis points in March, the most in 10 months. That took its plunge this fiscal year to 47 bps, the steepest fall in five years.

The fall in the yield followed huge foreign inflows in debt and the dovish policies by global central banks.

Overall, foreign investors bought a record high of ₹1.27 trillion of Indian government bonds this fiscal.

Tenure	Today	Previous
10-year Gilt	6.58%	6.60%
5-year gilt	6.44%	6.49%
5-year OIS	5.93%	5.93%

The Indian rupee saw its best monthly rise in over six years, driven by a weaker dollar and renewed foreign inflows into equities. The currency has appreciated by 2.39% in March -- the best month since November 2018. The rupee’s gain in March was driven by strong foreign institutional inflows, which boosted sentiment and supported rupee buyers. 

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee ended the financial year 2025 around 2.5% lower. 

Unit	Today	Previous
Dollar/Rupee	85.47	85.78
Dollar Index	104.13	103.99
1-year Dollar/rupee premium (%)	2.27%	2.27%

OUTLOOK
Equity markets volatility may continue amid looming US tariffs.  Tariff war will likely continue to dominate the direction of the markets globally. Further, RBI policy and January-March financial performance of companies are important factors to watch out for in the coming weeks.

The rupee is likely to trade in 85.25-86.00 range on Tuesday. Markets awaits for the decisions taken at ongoing US-India meetings on tariffs.

Key Events & Data Due Next Week

Economic Data:

• Chinese March Composite PMI
• China March Caixin Manufacturing PMI
• US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 
• US March ISM Manufacturing PMI  
• US February JOLTS Job Openings Data
• India March S&P Manufacturing PMI
• US March ADP Non-farm Employment Change Data
• US Crude Oil Inventories Data
• China March Caixin Services PMI
• OPEC Meeting  
• US Weekly Jobless Claims Data
• US March S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar)
• US March Non-farm Payrolls Data

Corporate Actions:

• Aditya Birla Capital board to discuss fundraising plans
• Housing & Urban Development Corp board to discuss fundraising plans
• Supreme Infrastructure India board to consider earnings

Policy:

• Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs
• ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• ECB Monetary Policy Statement  
• Fed Chair Powell Speaks  
• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks  
• Fed Waller Speaks