For close to two decades, Israel’s national security establishment has operated under a single maxim: a nuclear-capable Iran would pose an existential threat that Israel could not live with. That belief, shaped by intelligence reports, ideology, and history, has now culminated in action. With its ongoing wave of strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, Israel has crossed a threshold that most of the international community hoped would remain theoretical.Was the triggering of war inevitable? For years, at least since 2003, I can recall, Israel being wary of Iran’s nuclear programme that the latter professed was for peaceful purposes. There have been moments of tension several times when reports of weaponisation nearing fruition went viral. It seems this time Israeli intelligence concluded that the nuclear programme was only weeks away from a breakout, no longer just enrichment, but proper weaponisation. The entire Middle East is petrified of that kind of power in the hands of the current Iranian regime. In Israeli eyes, allowing Iran to cross that threshold would change the entire regional balance and endanger Israel’s long-term survivability. It was probably seen not merely as a military risk but a perceived point of no return.
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