BMC Polls: Voting Pattern Shows Split Between Development and Identity Politics Persists

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections have delivered a decisive verdict, with the BJP-Shinde Sena alliance securing a simple majority by winning 118 out of 227 seats. However, the Thackeray brothers, Uddhav and Raj, who joined forces after two decades of political estrangement mounted a formidable challenge, capturing 72 seats between them despite the loss of official symbol to Eknath Shinde faction and disastrous loss in 2024 general elections. 

Seat Tally & Vote Share of Parties in BMC

Alliance Dynamics and Seat Distribution
The electoral arithmetic reveals a complex political landscape. The BJP improved its tally from 82 seats in 2017 to 89 seats in 2026, registering a modest gain of seven seats. Their alliance partner, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction, won 29 seats out of the 90 contested. Meanwhile, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) secured 65 seats, and Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena won six seats, down from seven in 2017.

The Congress, which severed its alliance with Uddhav Thackeray, witnessed a decline from 31 seats to 24 seats, losing 7 constituencies. Other parties like AIMIM won eight seats, Samajwadi Party two, and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) three seats. The NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) managed just one seat.

The Vote Share Equation
The vote share patterns tell an intriguing story of political realignment. The united Shiv Sena, which commanded 28% of votes in 2017, saw its support base expand to 37% when combined across both factions in 2026. However, this increase came with a dramatic split: the Shinde faction secured 13% while Uddhav's UBT faction garnered 24%, establishing the latter as the larger inheritor of the Sena legacy, at least within Mumbai's boundaries.

The BJP's vote share increased marginally from 27% to 28%, reflecting a solid consolidation rather than dramatic expansion. Congress experienced a 3-percentage-point decline, dropping from 16% to 13%, though it managed to retain significant support from the Muslim community, with 14 of its 24 corporators coming from this demographic. The MNS saw its vote share slip from 8% to 6%, underscoring its diminished electoral appeal despite the high-profile reunion with Uddhav.

Strategic Victories and Defeats
The BJP's electoral strategy proved remarkably effective in pulling together a winning coalition. By aligning with the Shinde Sena, the saffron party managed to attract a segment of the Marathi Manoos vote while simultaneously consolidating the non-Marathi vote bank, both of which constitute approximately 40% of Mumbai's electorate. This dual consolidation proved critical in securing their majority.

The ruling alliance also benefited significantly from female voters, who continued to back the BJP-plus alliance due to the Ladki Bahin cash transfer scheme and similar welfare promises in the manifesto. Around 44% backed the Mahayuti alliance as per Axis My India survey. Additionally, residents of high-rise buildings, representing Mumbai's aspirational middle class, were swayed by the development-oriented pitch championed by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, 51% backing Mahayuti as per the same survey. 

The Thackeray Brothers' Campaign
The reunion of Uddhav and Raj Thackeray after 20 years generated considerable political buzz and nostalgia among traditional Shiv Sena supporters. The alliance attempted to consolidate the Marathi vote on the plank of Marathi Asmita (Marathi pride) and positioned the Thackeray brothers as the true inheritors of Bal Thackeray's legacy. Pre-poll surveys by Ascendia Strategies indicated that voters indeed perceived UBT as the "real Sena," a sentiment that appears to have been validated by the results.

In direct contests between the Shinde Sena and the Thackeray brothers' alliance, Uddhav clearly had the upper hand. The Shinde faction contested 85 seats against the combined Thackeray force but could win only 29, demonstrating that within the BMC's jurisdiction, Uddhav retains a stronger claim to the Sena's traditional support base. This dynamic, however, does not necessarily translate to other municipal corporations across Maharashtra, where political equations differ.

Where the Strategy Faltered
Despite their strong performance, the UBT-MNS alliance faced critical challenges in vote consolidation. Raj Thackeray's inflammatory rhetoric, particularly regarding non-Marathi communities, proved counterproductive. While it may have energized the Marathi base, it alienated the substantial non-Marathi population, costing the alliance crucial seats in cosmopolitan constituencies.

Perhaps more surprisingly, the alliance failed to secure the Muslim vote despite being best positioned to defeat the BJP. This community, which had strategic reasons to back the strongest anti-BJP force, instead divided its support among Congress and other parties like AIMIM/SP/NCP reflecting either a lack of trust in the Thackeray alliance or effective counter-mobilization by rival parties.

The MNS emerged as the weak link in the alliance, winning just six out of 52 contested seats. In 34 direct contests with the BJP, the MNS could secure victory in only three, with the BJP triumphing in 26. This poor performance raises questions about Raj Thackeray's current electoral relevance and whether the alliance provided any real electoral dividend to SHS-UBT. Should Uddhav have continued alliance with Congress? This question will haunt him all his life. 

Analyzing the Shifts
When comparing the 2026 results with 2017, several trends become apparent. The unified Shiv Sena of 2017, which won 84 seats, has now split into two factions that collectively won 94 seats, representing a net gain of ten seats. This suggests that the Sena brand, despite internal divisions, has actually strengthened its overall position in Mumbai, though the split in vote share creates governance challenges.

The BJP's gain of five seats and one  percentage point in vote share demonstrates steady, incremental growth rather than a sweeping wave. The party's success lies in meticulous organisation, targeted welfare schemes, and effective caste and community management along with Devendra Fadnavis charisma-driven politics.

Congress's loss of seven seats and three percentage points reflects the broader national trend of the party's gradual erosion in urban centers, though it retained a significant base among Muslim voters. The combined NCP factions lost five seats, and other smaller parties collectively lost four seats, indicating consolidation toward larger political formations and decline of Pawar brand not only in Mumbai but across Maharashtra where they lost in bastions Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad. 

Looking Ahead
The BMC election results set the stage for fascinating political developments in Maharashtra. While the BJP-Shinde alliance will control India's richest municipal corporation, the strong showing by the Thackeray brothers keeps alive the possibility of future realignments. The results confirm that Mumbai remains a divided city, split between development-oriented aspirational politics and identity-based regionalism.

For Uddhav Thackeray, the results provide both vindication and challenge. He has established himself as the primary heir to the Shiv Sena legacy within Mumbai, but converting this into broader electoral success across Maharashtra remains an uphill task. 

For the BJP and Devendra Fadnavis, the victory confirms their dominance but with a relatively slim majority that will require careful coalition management. The real test will be governance and delivery over the next five years, which will determine whether this mandate gets renewed or rejected when Mumbai votes again. 

The expectations from a Triple Engine sarkar are very high.