GLOBAL MOOD: Cautiously Risk-On Drivers: Mixed corporate earnings, Fed independence debate, tariff deadline pressure, yen-led dollar weakness, bond rally on global uncertainty Indian markets are set for a mildly positive start, taking cues from a slight risk-on tone in global markets. Investors are positioning ahead of key earnings, with big tech leading gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Over in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up in early trade today as markets reopen, shrugging off the ruling party’s loss of upper house control over the weekend. TODAY’S WATCHLIST - Fed Chair Powell Speech - ECB President Lagarde Speech - Earnings: Zee Entertainment Enterprise, One 97 Communications THE BIG STORYUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that the Federal Reserve’s independence is under threat due to “mandate creep” into areas beyond its core monetary role. In a post on X, Bessent said this expansion risks undermining the Fed’s credibility and could provoke justified criticism. He described monetary policy as “a jewel box” that must be protected to safeguard economic growth and stability. Meanwhile, tariff negotiations between the US and its trading partners are intensifying ahead of the 1 August deadline. However, with no substantial deals yet reached, pressure continues to mount on all sides. Data SpotlightUS Fresh data points to a slowing US economy, with the impact of tariffs expected to intensify in the second half of the year via higher consumer prices. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell by 0.3% to 98.8 in June, a sharper decline than the 0.2% drop forecasted by economists. Takeaway: The data signals growing headwinds for the US economy, reinforcing concerns that tariff-related pressures are starting to weigh more heavily on outlook. WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT US stocks closed at record highs The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs supported by gains in mega caps. Investors remained optimistic ahead of key earnings and possible trade deals to soften the impact of global tariffs. Alphabet shares jumped 2.7% ahead of its earnings on Wednesday; Tesla, also reporting the same day, helped boost sentiment. Treasury yields fall on global tariff concerns Yields rallied as investors unwound short positions and tracked a broader bond rally in Europe amid tariff uncertainty. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped 4.7 bps to 4.384%. The 30-year yield fell 5 bps to 4.9491%. US dollar weakens as yen gains post Japan election The dollar fell after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its upper house majority, boosting the yen. Political uncertainty in Japan led to safe-haven demand for the yen. The Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.53% to 97.88. The euro rose 0.55% to $1.1689. Crude oil prices marginally down Brent crude settled down 0.1%, at $69.21 per barrel, WTI fell 0.2%, to $67.20 per barrel. Oil prices fell as limited supply impact of fresh EU sanctions on Russian oil. The market appeared to be in a holding pattern, with mixed signals on future demand and geopolitical disruptions. Day’s Ledger Economic Data: ECB Bank Lending Survey US June Money Supply Corporate Action: Earnings: Aurionpro Solutions, Colgate Palmolive (India), Creditaccess Grameen, Cyient, Dalmia Bharat, Indian Railway Finance Corporation, Jana Small Finance Bank, JSW Infrastructure, Kajaria Ceramics, KEI Industries, Mahanagar Gas, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, One 97 Communications, SML Isuzu, and Zee Entertainment Enterprise Indian Infotech to consider right issue Shyam Metalics to consider fund raising Silgo Retail to consider issue of shares Policy Events: RBA Meeting Minutes ECB President Lagarde Speech Fed Chair Powell Speech Fed Bowman Speech Tickers to Watch AFCONS INFRASTRUCTURE: Emerges lowest bidder for ₹68 billion railway projects in Croatia. BAJAJ FINANCE: Anup Kumar Saha resigns as MD citing personal reasons. BEML: Board approves 2-for-1 stock split; record date to be fixed post shareholder nod. CIPLA: Acquires 20% stake in medical device firm iCalltech for ₹50 million. DCM SHRIRAM: Apr-Jun consolidated net profit up 13% YoY to ₹1.13 billion. DR REDDY'S: US API facility receives 'voluntary action indicated' status from USFDA. ETERNAL: PAT drops more than expected despite strong sales performance. HAVELLS INDIA: Misses Street estimates due to weak Lloyd segment performance. IDBI BANK: Apr-Jun net profit rises 17% YoY on higher other income. LIC: Raises stake in SBI to 9.49% from 9.21% via QIP. MOTHERSON SUMI WIRING: Allots 2.21 billion bonus shares worth ₹2.21 billion. OBEROI REALTY: Apr-Jun consolidated EBITDA falls 26% YoY to ₹6 billion. PNB HOUSING FINANCE: Net profit up 21% YoY on five-fold jump in write-backs. PIRAMAL PHARMA: CARE upgrades long-term bank facilities rating to ‘AA’ from ‘AA-’. SAMVARDHANA MOTHERSON: Approves issue of 3.52 billion bonus shares worth ₹3.52 billion. SBI: Raises ₹250 billion through QIP; issue price set at ₹817 per share. Moody’s upgrades baseline credit assessment to ‘baa3’ from ‘ba1’. TILAKNAGAR INDUSTRIES: Says no communication yet from Andhra police on liquor scam probe. TITAN: To acquire 67% stake in Damas for AED 1.04 billion enterprise value. ULTRATECH CEMENT: Net profit surges 49% YoY in Apr-Jun on strong sales. Must Read Jagdeep Dhankhar resigns as Vice President of India, citing medical reasons Air India issued 9 show cause notices in 6 months over safety lapses: Govt Rate cuts by RBI not magic bullet to propel investments: Raghuram Rajan SEBI cautions investors against dabba trading practice Top banks' fresh hiring slowed in FY25 amid moderation in business growth India-US trade deal negotiations pushed beyond Donald Trump's deadline India, US seek to futureproof trade agreement amid tax and tariff concerns China starts building world's largest hydropower project in Tibet Gita Gopinath, IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, to step down in August Japan’s PM tries to buy time after historic election setback ECB taking breather but busy data week to help decide next steps ECB won’t flinch yet in the shadow of trump’s trade war Fed will keep Trump waiting amid a wave of global rate cuts See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.Have a great trading day. Is Niti Aayog’s proposal to ease Chinese investment norms risks undermining national security? TK Arun argues why Chinese investment should be eased not on the basis of the size of the foreign stake but by the strategic significance of the sector in question.
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