Bangladesh’s Verdict Opens Door to Reset with India

Bangladesh’s parliamentary verdict has altered the political geometry of South Asia and reopened a channel that had narrowed during the turbulent caretaker interlude. The decisive victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party under Tarique Rahman has revived expectations in New Delhi that bilateral ties may stabilise after months of unease during the Mohammed Yunus-led interim administration.

With the BNP and its allies securing a two-third majority in the 300-seat Jatiya Sangsad and the Jamaat-e-Islami trailing far behind, the electorate has delivered a signal that Islamic fundamentalism commands less traction among youth and women than feared. The scale of the mandate matters. It diminishes the prospect of a fragmented coalition in which hardline actors could have exercised disproportionate influence.

Concerns had mounted in India when Jamaat appeared poised for gains under the interim dispensation that followed the September 2024 student revolt. The National Citizens Party, formed by student leaders, had aligned tactically with Jamaat, fuelling anxiety that anti-minority rhetoric and ideological rigidity would seep deeper into governance. That scenario, for now, may have been arrested.

For India, the relief is strategic rather than sentimental. Bangladesh occupies a pivotal place in India’s eastern security calculus, sharing a long and porous border. Delhi had watched closely as the Yunus government’s overtures to Pakistan appeared to gather pace, coinciding with a rise in communal tensions and sporadic violence. The BNP’s victory provides an opening to recalibrate.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to congratulate Tarique Rahman, underscoring India’s commitment to a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh and signalling readiness to deepen multifaceted ties. Diplomatic choreography at moments such as these is rarely accidental.

The election itself was not devoid of turbulence. Violence left dozens injured across multiple districts. Despite this, the capacity of external or radical actors to shape outcomes may have been overstated.

Governance Test     
Rahman now confronts the harder phase of governance.

After 17 years in exile in London, he returns without administrative experience and with a complex political inheritance. Criminal cases filed during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure had kept him abroad. His re-entry into domestic politics coincided with the death of his mother, former prime minister Khaleda Zia, adding a layer of personal transition to political change.

Restoring discipline within a politically polarised police force and reasserting law and order will test the new administration’s resolve. The September 2024 revolt fractured institutions and emboldened actors across the ideological spectrum. Any durable reset with India will depend partly on whether Rahman reins in fundamentalist forces that seek to curtail freedoms for minorities and women.

Delhi’s scrutiny will extend to Dhaka’s approach towards Pakistan. The historical memory of 1971 continues to inform India’s strategic thinking. Pakistan’s interest in leveraging the Bangladesh frontier to unsettle India remains a persistent concern. While Rahman and his party have historically maintained contacts with Islamabad, a pragmatic equilibrium rather than exuberant outreach appears more likely. Bangladesh’s economic imperatives leave little room for geopolitical adventurism.

Those imperatives are acute. The garment and textile sector, the backbone of Bangladesh’s export economy, has been disrupted and faces intensifying competition, including from India. Inflation and unemployment have eroded public patience. Reviving growth will require engagement with both India and China, balancing commercial necessity with diplomatic calibration.

Another delicate issue looms in the background: the status of Sheikh Hasina, sentenced to death by a judicial tribunal during the interim period and currently residing in India. Electoral rhetoric centred on accountability for the student shootings. Yet pressing too aggressively for deportation risks complicating ties with Delhi at a moment when economic cooperation is urgently needed. Rahman must weigh domestic expectations against strategic prudence.

The landslide was less an endorsement of ideological shift than a repudiation of disorder. Voters appeared motivated by fatigue with instability and economic drift rather than by doctrinal fervour. That distinction matters.

For India, this is neither triumph nor guarantee. It is an opportunity conditioned by Rahman’s ability to govern inclusively, stabilise institutions and resist polarising temptations. If managed with restraint, the new chapter could restore the pragmatic partnership that had underpinned India-Bangladesh ties for much of the past decade.

South Asian politics seldom permits complacency. Yet for now, the electorate in Dhaka has created space for a reset. Whether that space is used wisely will determine if the thaw becomes durable.