India’s retail inflation eased to 3.16% in April 2025, the lowest figure July 2019. The inflation was at 3.34% in March and 3.61% in February, marking the third consecutive month that CPI has remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4%, bolstering the case for the central bank to keep cutting policy rates.Last month, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time and shifted its stance to accommodative. It lowered the average inflation forecast for 2025–26 by 20 basis points to 4%. The downward revision was concentrated in the first half of the financial year. Inflation for the October–December quarter was left unchanged at 3.8%, while the forecast for January–March was revised upwards to 4.4% from 4.2%, indicating possible inflationary pressures later in the year.
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