Anti-Incumbency Poll Outcomes Signal Need for Governance Recalibration

Two chief ministers losing the elections and a third one trailing in the first five rounds of counting offer a rough idea about the high-voltage drama that unfolded on Monday in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Assam and Pondicherry results were on predicted lines with the incumbents retaining power. Hemanta Biswa Sarma has become an unstoppable satrap in a party that does not have many regional leaders by winning 82 out of 126 seats. BJP crossed the halfway mark on its own in its third consecutive victory in Assam.

But the real drama, outclassing all southern spicy reel spectacles, is still being played out in Tamil Nadu with superstar Vijay smashing all records and rivals alike. Chief Minister MK Stalin lost his own Kolathur constituency and the state polls to the debutant in a poll that most pundits and pollsters could not read. The anti-incumbency wave that swept the ruling DMK out brought in hopes for a fresh face and an epochal political churning. First time after CN Annadurai defeated the Congress to become Chief Minister in March 1967 there will be no Dravidian party in power in Tamil Nadu. 

Vijay’s victory is more spectacular than that of MG Ramachandran’s in 1977 because the latter was inherently a political person, a senior party functionary and a regular campaigner before splitting the DMK and forming AIADMK. Vijay just happened, on his own, without organisational props, ideological crutches or agitational politics. This is exactly what Rajinikanth in his prime could have achieved, if he had the stomach for the rough and tumble of the unforgiving grind of politics. 

Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has won 108 stopping short of simple majority in a house of 234 seats. He will have no dearth of suitors with the Congress, the Left and other smaller parties hinting at the possibility of offering support to TVK. Rahul Gandhi, apparently, wanted to ditch DMK and tie up with Vijay, but was unsure of the star’s staying power. Hence Vijay deserves all the credit for his stupendous performance because it was solely his mass base that lured all the anti-incumbency and youth votes that yearned for a change, rejecting DMK’s dynastic politics. DMK was being led by M Karunanidhi, his son MK Stalin and now grandson Udayanidhi Stalin.

The results are also a rejection of the faction-ridden AIADMK that was rendered rudderless after the death of its leader and former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. Its ally BJP could neither help the regional party nor make a mark despite the high profile campaign. The DMK had over 20 allies and had the broadest socio-economic platform possible for a political front with almost every significant community getting represented. Vijay’s performance should be measured in terms of the defeat of these two mega fronts and their myriad allies. The drama isn’t over yet; the curtains will fall only with the swearing-in of the new cabinet.

West Bengal witnessed a frontal fight between Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and the BJP. Mamata was not just battling the BJP, but a three-term anti-incumbency and a dysfunctional administrative mechanism that can only be blamed on her party goons masquerading as political leaders. Three terms or 15 years are a long time for at least a genuine attempt at transformative politics of development, industrial growth and employment generation. Unfortunately, Mamata squandered these fifteen years in political drama and street theatre trying to score brownie points against Prime Minister Narendra Modi instead of creating jobs for the millions of Bengalis who are forced to travel as far as Kerala to do menial, unskilled jobs.

Mamata used the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls as a political messaging tool to mobilise Muslim votes and overcome anti-incumbency. Interestingly, the BJP let this Muslim-mobilisation play out in the hope of a counter consolidation of Hindu votes against Mamata’s reliance on Muslims to come to power. And it worked. But largely the BJP owes its victory to Mamata’s bad governance, scams, allegation of rape and violence against her party workers and unemployment. 

Her TMC had grown to mirror the CPI(M) at its worst without offering any hope of breaking out of the state’s debilitating poverty. The RG Kar rape incident made women’s safety a prime electoral issue that made Mamata and her party vulnerable. She seems to have lost even her trusted Muslim vote bank. It is no coincidence that the six candidates who won from Congress, CPI(M), AJUP and AISF are all Muslims pointing towards the splintering of the Muslim votes. Her cry of disenfranchisement of the Muslims of Bengal and the allegations of the BJP using ECI to defeat her did not cut much ice with the Muslim voters, who abandoned her at least in some constituencies.

Not just in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, in Kerala too anti-incumbency was the biggest electoral driver leading to the rout of the Left Democratic Front and the victory of the Congress-led United Democratic Front. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan finally won his constituency after having suffered the ignominy of trailing the polls in the initial rounds, but most of his cabinet colleagues lost the election. Congress’ stunning performance is due to two crucial factors: Vijayan’s track record tainted by allegations of corruption, nepotism, arrogance and undemocratic behaviour, and the leadership offered by Congress’ Opposition leader VD Satheesan. 

But the Congress, true to its self, may trigger infighting and one-upmanship, which could steal the spectacular show by delaying the announcement of the Chief Minister. The very fact that two other leaders are in contention and have been unleashing their supporters to make open claims even before the counting began proves that they are poised to play spoilsports despite the unprecedented UDF victory.

This round of elections has been all about the people teaching their representatives a tough lesson in democracy. The more deviant the leaders, the harsher has been the punishment. In that sense Vijayan should count himself extremely lucky because he could at least save his seat, something that Mamata and Stalin could not do.