It was a long weekend in India, which gave many of us time to track the furious pace of developments in the US. Over the past week, Washington has turned the trade and tariff screw on multiple fronts.The Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska, which, in Trump-speak, was “successful” simply because it lasted longer than a few minutes, was closely watched in both Ukraine and India—two countries with high stakes in its outcome. While experts are not unanimous on the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war, the meeting has increased the likelihood that the proposed 25% secondary tariff on India will either not be imposed or at least be deferred beyond August 27, 2025. One factor working in India’s favour: reports of a voluntary decline in purchases of Russian Ural oil, driven by shrinking margins between Ural and Brent crude now down to about $5 a barrel from a peak of about $30 in 2022.
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