India is likely to receive above-normal southwest monsoon in 2025, with total rainfall estimated at 105% of the long period average, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday in its first long-range forecast. This comes as a positive signal for the country’s agriculture and rural economy, which remains heavily dependent on monsoon rains.

The projection has a model error of ±5%, based on an average rainfall of 87 cm for 1971–2020.

The forecast is significant as it follows subdued rainfall in several regions last year and could help ease food inflation and boost crop output.

The IMD's long-range forecast also provides probabilities across five rainfall categories. The chances of a deficient monsoon are just 2%, while there is a 33% probability of above-normal rainfall and a 26% chance of excess rainfall:

The first long range forecast should be taken with a pinch of salt. Since 2003, when IMD introduced the two-stage forecast, actual rainfall during the season has fallen outside the forecast range almost two-thirds of the time, especially in April predictions.

The actual rainfall during the monsoon season was outside the forecast error margin in 14 out of 22 years. Updated forecasts released during the end of May fare better, with IMD getting 50% of the predictions correct.

The southwest monsoon season from June to September accounts for about 75% of India’s annual precipitation. The forecast is keenly awaited by the government, policymakers, farmers, industries, and financial markets alike.