El Nino Once Again Exposes Gaps in Irrigation Strategy

The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare convened a high-level virtual meeting on June 23 to prepare for an uncertain Kharif season, owing to the El Nino effect. 

The World Meteorological Organisation had, as early as in March 2026, warned that an El Nino event was likely this year, while the India Meteorological Department’s long-range forecast issued in April placed seasonal rainfall at 92% of the long-period average. 

Despite these early indications of a weak monsoon for a country where almost 64% of the population is dependent on agriculture, preparedness gathered pace only after the El Nino effect became increasingly evident. During June, rainfall deficiency was recorded at about 40%, and area coverage under Kharif crops declined 54% over the previous year. 

While July rains are promising, we find ourselves in such a crisis situation each monsoon season, El Nino or not, raising concerns regarding a robust long-term strategy to monsoon-proof the economy, and efficiently manage water resources.

Agricultural output rests on a multitude of complex factors including fertilisers, seeds, mechanisation and tools, skills, R&D and so on. Timely access and adequate water remain the most critical enablers for the success of policy strategies for other inputs and vectors. India is heavily reliant on the southwest monsoon, and the country receives close to three-quarters of its annual rainfall during June to September.

Between 2019 and 2025, seasonal rain has performed well, with normal / excess rainfall occurring in over 75% districts in five of the seven years, and a reasonably good annual average GVA growth rate of 3.3% for agriculture and allied sectors in the last three years. The challenge is to effectively deploy this water abundance and build long-term resilience through irrigation facilities that will minimise the vagaries of the monsoon. This will not only support farmers, but also improve food management, inflation control, consumer demand and overall income growth.

India’s irrigation experience over the years has been modest.

First, India’s net irrigated area increased from 57 million hectares in 2003-04 to 82.4 million hectares in 2023-24. Gross irrigated area – the area irrigated for more than one crop during the year – rose from 41% of gross cropped area to 60%. Yet, the pace of expansion has not picked up in recent years, even as the monsoons have become increasingly erratic.

Two, wide regional disparities exist in irrigation access across the country. For example, in Punjab and Haryana, gross irrigation stands at over 90%, while some states have irrigation coverage below 25%, as per the Land Use Survey 2025.

Three, crop coverage of irrigation is largely concentrated in a few foodgrains. Rice and wheat benefit from better irrigation facilities, compared with other important crops such as pulses and oilseeds, distorting farmer incomes. While India has emerged as the top rice producer and exporter, the lack of adequate water for other major crops constrains consumption and raises imports in rainfall deficient years.

Four, the share of canals is giving way to the rising share of tanks and tubewells, affecting groundwater supplies. The government is rightly shifting from large irrigation projects to improving the efficiency of irrigation. The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana, underway since 2015, aims to take water management to the farm level. The Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme, Modernisation of Command Area Development and Water Management, watershed development, Har Khet Ko Pani and Per Drop More Crop schemes collectively help enhance water productivity through renovation of existing facilities, groundwater management, and boosting micro-irrigation facilities.

However, it appears that the proposed budget outlay for these programmes has been reduced over the last few years. The transfers to states and UTs under the Har Khet Ko Pani programme stood at Rs 8.93 billion in 2025-26, and has been budgeted at just Rs 7.0 billion for 2026-27. The total PMKSY outlay for 2026-27 at Rs 71.37 billion is barely higher than the expenditure for the previous year of Rs 69.21 billion.

The Economic Survey 2026 cites limited access to water as one of the hurdles to Indian agricultural productivity, and calls for boosting access to assured water supply through micro-irrigation and revival of water bodies. As El Nino and other weather events increase in frequency and intensity, India’s irrigation strategy requires focused long-term attention from central and state governments. Else, the Indian economy will continue to remain hostage to the monsoon performance year after year.