Crop Output Targets For 2026-27 Are Out, But Are They Realistic?

While there is no argument against fixing aspirational crop production targets, the context is critical. And for the year 2026-27, the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare seems to have overlooked this critical aspect.

For the 2026-27 Kharif season, the looming El Nino threatens to unleash dry conditions during the crucial months from June to September, coinciding with crop planting, growth and harvest. The India Meteorological Department has downgraded its rainfall forecast from the initial 92% to 90% of the long period average of 870 millimeters. Without satisfactory spatial and temporal rainfall distribution over the four-month period, Kharif crops - rice, coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds and cotton - will most certainly fall well short of the production target.

Other factors could also impact production. The unrest in West Asia, attack on major gas installations, and closure of the Strait of Hormuz for well over two months has created a tight supply situation for feedstock and propelled prices of synthetic fertilisers higher. Farmers are hence likely to compromise on the use of fertilisers, which will impact yields.

Major reservoirs across the country are currently at less-than-satisfactory capacities, especially in the eastern and southern regions, making crop production targets more vulnerable. Subsoil moisture in large parts of the country is also far from encouraging following the severe heat wave this year.

The government has, given all these factors, been rather brave in fixing ambitious Kharif production targets, far higher than the previous year’s actual production.

For cotton, a key cash crop, production target for 2026-27 has been set at 336 lakh bales (1 bale is 170 kg), far higher than the previous year’s harvest size of 290 lakh bales. Interestingly, this target is despite the fact that the cultivated area and production of cotton has been shrinking for the last three years. How production will rebound 15% in this challenging year is anybody’s guess as the government has outlined no actionable strategy.

The soybean production target has been set at 148.5 lakh tonnes. Madhya Pradesh and Vidharba region of Maharashtra – which are the soybean producing regions of the country - are likely to face the worst brunt of El Nino. Even last year’s production estimate of 125.9 lakh tonnes looks suspect, and according to the processing industry, the actual harvest is 10% lower.

Pigeon pea (tur/arhar) production target is pegged at 40.3 lakh tonnes, while over the last four years, actual production has been stuck at 33-36 lakh tonnes. Again, the strategy to reach the 40-lakh-tonne mark is unclear. 

Production targets for Kharif 2026-27 apart, the government’s trade and tariff policy is also expected to have an impact. While sugar exports continue to be banned, duty-free import of cotton was recently allowed until October 2026. Similarly, import of pigeon pea and black matpe (urad) is allowed without any restrictions until March 2027. Soybean oil continues to be imported with a 10% customs duty, while about 10 lakh tonnes of duty-free soybean from Africa is slated to reach Indian shores this year.

The targets and policies reflect poor coordination within the government, especially the ministries of agriculture, food, commerce and finance. Overcoming these headwinds demands a comprehensive and multi-pronged policy approach which will balance the interests of the primary producers and the consumers.