Asia Stocks Mixed as Oil Slips, Nvidia Lifts US Futures 

Global Mood: Cautiously Risk-off
Drivers: Hormuz Deal Elusive, PCE Tops Forecasts, Jackson Hole Ahead

Asian stock markets traded mixed on Thursday, with South Korea’s Kospi rising 1.81% while Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.14% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.40%. The moves followed a largely subdued Wall Street session, with the S&P 500 little changed, the Nasdaq down 0.08% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.21%.

US equity futures pointed higher after Nvidia’s latest quarterly results, with S&P 500 futures up 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 1.07%. Oil prices remained under pressure, with Brent near $87 a barrel and down more than 7% this week, as traders weighed West Asia developments against rising Russia-Ukraine tensions. Prices reversed earlier gains after Iran’s military said it had reached a revenue-sharing arrangement with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over disruption to energy flows.

THE BIG STORY
Qatar's prime minister was due in Tehran Thursday in the most significant diplomatic push since active hostilities largely subsided, aiming to relaunch talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and create conditions for dialogue between Washington and Tehran. The visit came as conflicting signals emerged over an Iran-Oman Hormuz accord — the IRGC claimed the two sides had agreed on shared control and revenues, while a senior Iranian source told Reuters no final agreement had been reached and details were still being worked out. The IRGC simultaneously accused the US of obstructing the Oman negotiations, saying the strait could open quickly if Washington stopped interfering and accepted Iran's conditions. Hormuz oil flows have fallen to a three-month low of just 5 million barrels per day, a quarter of pre-war levels, as Iran's blacklist of 45 ships deters shippers and the IMO records 70 incidents in the waterway since February, killing 19 seafarers. Rubio reportedly told allies the US does not plan new strikes for now, cementing a shift toward economic pressure — though Trump's approval ratings have hit record lows ahead of November midterms, adding urgency to finding an exit.

On the US economic front, July PCE came in above forecasts at 3.7% annually and 0.2% month-on-month, briefly lifting September Fed hike odds to around 40% before settling back. Consumer spending decelerated, but personal incomes rose faster than inflation, Q2 corporate profits posted their second-largest increase on record, and Q3 GDP growth is tracking above 3% according to economists. Fed Chair Warsh's debut Jackson Hole speech Friday is the next major focal point for markets navigating sticky inflation above target for a 65th consecutive month, elevated rate uncertainty, and an Iran war that shows no sign of imminent resolution.

Data Spotlight
US personal spending rose 0.2% in July, beating expectations of 0.1%, as an $86.2 billion increase in services spending on financial services, healthcare and housing more than offset a $49.9 billion decline in goods spending led by lower energy and vehicle purchases. Real consumer spending was broadly flat, following a 0.4% gain in June.

US durable goods orders rose 1.1% in July, the strongest gain since April and above forecasts of 0.5%, driven by transportation equipment and capital goods. The core capital goods proxy rose just 0.2%, however, below forecasts of 0.9%, suggesting underlying business investment momentum may be moderating.

Q2 2026 GDP growth was confirmed at an annualised 1.5%, with personal consumption surging 3.4% and fixed investment climbing 7.0% on strong AI-related equipment demand. Government spending fell 1.0%, dragged by a 13.2% plunge in nondefense federal outlays, while surging imports weighed on net exports.

The PCE price index rose 0.2% in July, above expectations of 0.1%, as services inflation accelerated to 0.3%. Annual headline PCE held at 3.7% and core PCE stayed at 3.3%, both slightly above or in line with forecasts, keeping inflation meaningfully above the Fed's 2% target.

Takeaway: Resilient consumer spending and strong fixed investment underpin Q2's confirmed 1.5% growth, though sticky services inflation and above-forecast PCE reinforce the Fed's higher-for-longer posture heading into its September meeting.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

US stocks edge lower as hotter-than-expected PCE and Nvidia uncertainty keep markets cautious

• The Dow fell 0.21%, S&P 500 lost 0.02%, and Nasdaq slipped 0.08%, as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of Nvidia's closely watched earnings after the bell.
• July PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, above the 3.6% estimate, adding pressure to the Fed's policy outlook ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, with September hike odds at 38.1%.
• April-June GDP grew 1.5%, matching last week's advance estimate, as the underlying economic backdrop remained solid despite elevated inflation.
• Nvidia fell 1.6% ahead of its results, with anything less than a stellar quarter seen as risking a rekindling of doubts about the sustainability of the AI boom.
• Iran and Oman reportedly reached an agreement on their share of the Strait of Hormuz and its revenue, a potential incremental step toward resolving the shipping impasse.
• Meta rose 1.1% after agreeing to pay up to $18 billion and make major platform changes to resolve US states' child harm claims, while Apple also gained 1.1%.

US Treasury yields edge up to 4.65% as above-forecast PCE offsets oil price relief

• July PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, both slightly above forecasts, while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually.
• Consumer spending, income, and durable goods orders all beat estimates, with GDP confirmed at 1.5% for April-June, painting a resilient economic backdrop.
• A third consecutive oil price decline capped yield gains by easing near-term inflation concerns.
• Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller argued the Treasury's buyback plan undermines market credibility and misses an opportunity for meaningful debt reform, adding to debate over the initiative's efficacy.

US Dollar edges above 99 as PCE data reinforces Fed hold expectations ahead of Jackson Hole

• July PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month with core at 3.3% year-on-year, well above the Fed's 2% target, though inflation-adjusted consumer spending was unchanged.
• A third consecutive oil price decline eased near-term inflation concerns, supporting the case for a September hold.
• Despite Wednesday's gains, the dollar remained near three-month lows, pressured by concerns over the Treasury's expanded buyback programme and broader US fiscal risks.
• Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday remains the key near-term catalyst for both Fed policy direction and dollar positioning.

Oil settles lower after choppy session as Hormuz deal progress and inventory data pull in opposite directions

• Brent settled at $87.84/bbl, down 0.84%, and WTI at $82.23, down 0.16%, after both benchmarks hit three-month lows intraday before paring losses on a smaller-than-expected crude stock build.
• Iran and Oman are working on details of a Strait of Hormuz revenue and management agreement, with the market shifting from pricing prolonged disruption toward partial reopening and negotiated shipping arrangements.
• Only five commodity vessels transited Hormuz on Tuesday, down from the 10-day average of 15, with Kpler data showing crossings at a three-month low.
• Pakistan reported "significant progress" in Iran talks, while Qatar's PM is set to visit Tehran on Thursday to discuss de-escalation, adding diplomatic momentum.
• US crude inventories rose just 95,000 barrels to 428.9 million barrels last week, well below the 597,000 barrel build expected, providing price support.
• Russia's NORSI refinery, its fourth-largest, suspended crude processing after a Ukrainian drone attack, while Russia is reportedly considering escalating ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv.
• A US senator said wide-ranging Russia sanctions legislation could pass the House next month, potentially acting as a "sledgehammer" to Moscow's war funding.

Day’s Ledger*
Economic Data 

• US Initial Jobless Claims
• Russia July GDP Monthly

Corporate Actions 

• Genus Power Infrastructures to consider dividend 
• Great Eastern Shipping Company to consider buyback

Policy

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting minutes
• Jackson Hole Symposium

Tickers to Watch

• GK ENERGY receives a Letter of Empanelment for a 4.55 billion rupees contract from a state-owned power distribution company to install rooftop solar systems at 100,000 households.
• BHARAT ELECTRONICS receives additional orders worth 7.30 billion rupees since its last disclosure on August 10.
• HINDUSTAN COPPER says the government's Offer for Sale has closed successfully with strong investor participation, with the issue oversubscribed on both days and the entire greenshoe option exercised.
• JIO FINANCIAL SERVICES says arm Jio Credit's gross AUM crossed 300 billion rupees in the April-June quarter, rising 163% y/y, while disbursements increased 173% to 112.52 billion rupees.
• MAX HEALTHCARE INSTITUTE says wholly owned subsidiary Alps Hospital has received a show-cause-cum-demand notice from DGGI alleging non-payment of GST on variable management fees.
• ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC may see Prudential Corp Holdings sell a 2% stake through a block deal for around 31.21 billion rupees, with the offer price set at 2,998–3,158 rupees per share, implying a 2–7% discount to CMP.
• IRB INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPERS board approves an investment of up to 3.51 billion rupees in IRB InvIT Fund to support the acquisition of two highway project companies.
• JUNIPER GREEN ENERGY arm Juniper Nirjara Energy signs a 25-year PPA with SJVN for a 50 MW FDRE project under the SJVN FDRE-2 scheme at a tariff of 4.25 rupees per unit.
• FOSECO INDIA shareholders Morganite Crucible and Morgan Terrassen BV are likely to sell their entire 15.27% stake through a block deal worth around 6.64 billion rupees, with a floor price of 5,773.63 rupees per share.
• AYE FINANCE investor Alpha Wave India I LP is likely to sell its entire 7.8% stake through a block deal worth around 3.20 billion rupees, with a floor price of 167 rupees per share.
• FINO PAYMENTS BANK receives RBI approval to extend Ketan Merchant's tenure as Interim CEO for a further three months from August 27 or until a regular MD & CEO takes charge, whichever is earlier.
• VEDANTA says Vedanta Resources has no plans to sell its stake in Vedanta, Vedanta Aluminium or any other group company, dismissing recent media speculation and reiterating its focus on growth, demerger and value unlocking.

Must Read

• The Reversification of Futures and Options – How India Lost ₹3.85 Trillion
• NSE’s IPO Clears an Overhang, Not the Governance Test
• Closing Auction Fixes the Close but Opens an Expiry-Day Fault Line
• India’s $700 Billion Reserve Buffer Carries a Forward Discount
• Central KYC 2.0: Moving India's Banked Millions Into Insurance, Funds, and Pensions
• India, China may build new framework for investments
• Air India seeks $1.5 billion from owners Tata, Singapore Air as losses mount

(*Compiled from various media sources)

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

Have a great trading day