India’s April CPI Inflation Rises to 3.48%, Food Prices Continue to Drive Upward Pressure

India’s retail inflation rose to 3.48% in April 2026, according to provisional data released under the revised CPI series with base year 2024. The latest reading was marginally lower than market expectations, with most polls estimating inflation in the range of 3.7%-3.8%.

The April print marks a further increase from March’s 3.40%, indicating continued firming in prices after the disinflation phase seen in late 2025. Food inflation remained the key driver, with the Consumer Food Price Index rising to 4.20% in April from 3.71% in March.

The rise in food prices continues to exert upward pressure on the headline index, particularly in rural areas where food carries a larger weight in the consumption basket. Rural headline inflation rose to 3.74% in April, higher than urban inflation of 3.16%.

April’s inflation print comes at a time when global commodity markets remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Higher energy and transportation costs have started feeding into domestic prices, while concerns over weather-related disruptions to agricultural output continue to influence food inflation expectations.

Despite the rise, headline inflation remains below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4%. The latest print also remains broadly in line with the RBI’s quarterly inflation trajectory for 2026-27. The Monetary Policy Committee last month projected CPI inflation at 4.0% for the April–June quarter, followed by 4.4% in the second quarter, 5.2% in the third quarter and 4.7% in the final quarter of 2026-27. The central bank’s full-year inflation forecast stands at 4.6%.

The April data suggest that inflation is gradually moving toward the RBI’s projected path, driven largely by food and commodity-linked components. While the increase in inflation has so far remained moderate, the trajectory indicates that supply-side pressures are becoming more visible compared with the previous two quarters.

The revised CPI series with base year 2024 has also changed the inflation composition by updating household expenditure weights using the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023–24. Food and beverages remain the largest category in the basket, though their weight has declined compared with the previous base year, reflecting higher household spending on services and discretionary consumption.

Going forward, food prices, energy costs and monsoon conditions will remain key variables influencing the inflation trajectory. The April print indicates that while inflation remains within the RBI’s comfort range, risks from commodities and supply disruptions continue to shape the outlook for the current fiscal year.