From Oil Shock to Fed Dilemma: How War Is Reshaping Markets | Market Makers

In this episode of Market Makers on BasisPoint Insight, Manoj Rane speaks with Dr Bento Lobo, Head of Economics & Finance at the University of Tennessee, Chattanooga, on how the ongoing geopolitical conflict is reshaping global markets.

US geopolitics is dominating discussions on the global economy and markets across asset classes. BasisPoint Insight gets you the views on all of this and more directly from the USA.

The conversation cuts through the noise to examine whether the war is likely to end soon, or evolve into a prolonged conflict with deeper economic consequences. Dr Lobo highlights the uncertainty around policy signals, the risk of escalation through “boots on the ground,” and why the real impact of war is often felt long after the headlines fade.

The discussion explores the impact on oil markets, with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz constraining nearly 20% of global supply. It also examines how gold and equities behave under different scenarios, whether the war ends quickly or drags on.

Finally, the conversation turns to the US Federal Reserve, where rising inflation risks, fiscal pressures, and shifting rate expectations are creating a complex policy dilemma. 

Highlights:

• Will the conflict be short-lived or prolonged?
• Oil supply disruptions and inflation risks
• Gold, equities, and market behaviour during conflict
• Fed policy, interest rates, and global implications