Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

With GST rate cuts coming into effect and a significant statistical base effect in play, India’s inflation indicators are likely to move toward deflation in October.

Datametricx

October 18, 2025 at 12:45 PM IST

istock.com/natbits

India’s September Retail Inflation Lowest Since 2017; Core Rises to 4.5%

BasisPoint Insight

October 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM IST

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Monetary Policy

Review of MPC Decision: What Does it Mean to be Forward-Looking?

Is it forward-looking to let policy be decided by base effects, rather than encouraging the anchoring of inflation expectations at the target?

Ashima Goyal

October 1, 2025 at 5:26 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Cut Rates Now, Not Wait Until December

With inflation collapsing, growth momentum set to fade, and the rupee a shock absorber, the RBI must cut rates in October, not wait till December.

Madhavi Arora

September 30, 2025 at 5:17 AM IST

Screengrab from a RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

India’s Wage Malaise Leaves RBI Little Room to Hide

With inflation subdued and nominal growth slipping, structural reforms and monetary easing must work together. The October policy is a test of intent.

Yield Scribe

September 23, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

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MPC Framework

If it Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix it

The framework may warrant limited refinement—specifically, the inclusion of a clearly defined escape clause for exceptional circumstances.

Vivek Kumar

August 26, 2025 at 2:05 PM IST

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Does Climate Change Matter for Monetary Policy Decisions?

Climate shocks are reshaping inflation, growth, and financial stability. For the RBI, integrating climate risks into monetary policy is no longer optional.

Hemachandra Padhan

August 24, 2025 at 8:44 AM IST

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Monetary Policy

RBI’s Inflation Vigil Misses Trade Storm Clouds

The central bank’s hawkish turn on core inflation ignores looming growth risks from Trump tariffs and slowing domestic demand.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 6, 2025 at 7:39 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Glass Half Full, Half Tariff

Trump calls it a ‘dead economy’; the RBI governor answers with monsoon cheer, falling inflation and a festival season pitch for resilience.

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Surprises With 50 bps Rate Cut, But Signals Long Pause Ahead

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to shift its stance to neutral from accommodative signals that the door to further cuts remains open but the threshold to cut again has risen.

BasisPoint Insight

June 6, 2025 at 4:46 AM IST

Monetary Policy In A Schrödinger’s Economy

RBI must tread carefully in a Schrödinger’s economy, where outcomes stay indeterminate until observed, demanding reactive policy moves.

Vivek Kumar

June 2, 2025 at 6:41 AM IST

RBI Need Not Rush To 5% As Liquidity Does The Heavy-Lifting

The RBI has uncoupled its stance from liquidity. That may make aggressive rate cuts less likely, even if monetary conditions stay easy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 19, 2025 at 5:56 AM IST

RBI Tweets

April CPI Inflation Lowest Since July 2019, Stays Below RBI Target For 3rd Month

This is the last CPI release before Monetary Policy Committee’s bi-monthly meeting to be held June 4-6.

BasisPoint Insight

May 13, 2025 at 11:42 AM IST

SBI Research Pushes For 50-BPS Jumbo Rate Cuts To Boost Transmission

The benign inflation outlook, coupled with a moderate growth forecast, has created what the bank describes as a “Goldilocks period” for rate cuts.

BasisPoint Insight

May 5, 2025 at 12:29 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Core Issue With India’s Inflation Isn’t Going Away

India’s headline inflation may have cooled, but seasonal effects mask the stickier rise in core prices—leaving RBI’s policy pivot on shaky ground.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 16, 2025 at 4:58 PM IST

iStock.com/:Radiokukka

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