RBI Bulletin Warns of Risks to Inflation from Second-Round Effects of West Asia Conflict

BasisPoint Insight

April 23, 2026 at 3:44 PM IST

MPC Minutes

When Neat Policy Theory Meets a Messier Reality

The RBI’s April minutes show a textbook response to a supply shock, but the Iran conflict is testing the limits of clean policy rules.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 22, 2026 at 3:04 PM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

RBI’s Malhotra May Be Preparing the Ground for Calibrated Rate Action

Focus on second-round effects and expectations hints at shallow, signalling-led rate hikes.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 21, 2026 at 7:47 AM IST

RBI

RBI Flags Second-Round Inflation Risks from West Asia Conflict

RBI flags second-round effects as the real concern, shifting focus to persistence and expectations while keeping policy flexible and path deliberately undefined.

BasisPoint Insight

April 21, 2026 at 4:11 AM IST

RBI Tweets

RBI Reframes Signals from Capital Flows

RBI messaging is split between cyclical optimism and structural detachment, reframing the way markets interpret FPI outflows amid stronger FDI and steady fundamentals.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 14, 2026 at 8:12 AM IST

March CPI Rises to 3.40%, Highest in 12 Months as Food Prices Firm Up

BasisPoint Insight

April 13, 2026 at 11:54 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Tells Bank Boards to Stick to Their Lanes

The RBI is ensuring that bank boards know where their powers begin and end to strike the right balance between governance and autonomy for bank management.

T. Bijoy Idicheriah

April 8, 2026 at 1:55 PM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI May Look to Hold Its Nerve as It Buys Time on Policy Calls

Markets may test the RBI on rupee, but the MPC is likely to keep its focus narrowly on monetary policy

Kalyan Ram

April 6, 2026 at 9:16 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Oil Shock From Iran Conflict May Test RBI’s Policy Comfort

A surge in crude prices and rupee weakness could complicate the RBI’s benign inflation outlook if the West Asia conflict proves prolonged.

Richard Fargose

March 13, 2026 at 2:26 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

RBI Governor Sees Rates on Prolonged Pause or Lower for a “Long Time”: Economic Times

BasisPoint Insight

March 2, 2026 at 2:59 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI Minutes Show Neutral Is No Longer Tactical

Neutral is no longer a pause before easing. February’s minutes recast it as a strategy, with April’s data reset pivotal.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 22, 2026 at 11:24 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

India’s Liquidity Surplus Masks a Structural Shortage?

India’s liquidity looks ample on paper, but thin reserve buffers and weak deposit elasticity reveal a deeper structural strain.

Kalyan Ram

February 18, 2026 at 12:32 PM IST

Government Addresses Borrowing Concerns with Fresh Bilateral Switches

BasisPoint Insight

February 13, 2026 at 11:00 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI’s First Step Timely, But Guardrails Needed to Prevent Gaming of Fraud

Small-value digital frauds are individually minor, but collectively corrosive to larger public trust. The RBI’s proposed compensation framework is timely, but it must be designed to deter fraud, not become opportunity for others to farm it.

Srinath Sridharan

February 7, 2026 at 4:08 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

RBI and the Bond Market Are Living in Parallel Worlds

Bond yields now reflect supply pressures, not policy signals. Until that changes, the RBI and bond markets will continue to operate in parallel worlds.

Kalyan Ram

February 6, 2026 at 10:37 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

Malhotra Signals Rates to Stay Low for Prolonger Period, Leaves Further Cuts to MPC

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 8:51 AM IST

RBI Flags Tighter Consumer Protection Push Amid Rising Digital Frauds

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 8:39 AM IST

RBI Signals Proactive Liquidity Management to Support Transmission

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 8:23 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI Raises Inflation Projections Marginally for Apr-Sep; Defers FY27 Forecast to April

RBI has nudged up near-term inflation projections on higher precious metal prices, while deferring FY27 forecasts to April pending the new CPI series, maintaining a broadly benign outlook.

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 6:27 AM IST

Services Exports, Remittances Seen Keeping India’s CAD Sustainable in 2025-26: RBI

The RBI expects strong services exports and steady remittance inflows should keep India’s current account deficit sustainable in 2025-26, despite trade pressures and portfolio outflows.

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 6:27 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI Holds Rates, Signals Comfort With Growth–Inflation Mix

The RBI held rates and its neutral stance, underscoring comfort with resilient growth and soft inflation while signalling patience ahead of data revisions and global uncertainty.

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 5:38 AM IST

MPC Review

Silence Is the RBI’s Strongest Signal This Week

With rates on hold and markets already speculating far ahead, the Reserve Bank’s best contribution may be to resist the temptation to explain the future.

Kalyan Ram

February 5, 2026 at 2:29 PM IST

Opinion

Malhotra’s RBI Needs Moral Suasion to Repair Policy Transmission?

The RBI’s challenge may not lie in policy intent or available tools. The difficulty appears to be that decisions are not consistently producing the intended market response.

Mint Owl

February 5, 2026 at 1:58 PM IST

Global Financial System Faces Valuation and Debt Risks, RBI Governor Malhotra Says

BasisPoint Insight

December 31, 2025 at 11:13 AM IST

MPC Finds Comfort in Benign Inflation, Reinforces Growth Momentum

With inflation decisively benign and growth risks rising, the MPC’s December minutes reveal a clear pivot towards supporting demand, using a rare disinflation window to reinforce momentum and pre-empt a broader economic slowdown.

BasisPoint Insight

December 19, 2025 at 1:05 PM IST

Opinion

A Year of Recalibration at Mint Street

Governor Malhotra’s first year at the RBI brought cleaner rules, quieter reversals, and a distinct shift in tone as the technocrat adjusted to the institution’s rhythm.

Kalyan Ram

December 11, 2025 at 5:25 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Are We in the Goldilocks Scenario?

India’s Goldilocks moment looks enticing, yet surging growth and vanishing inflation signal a fragile equilibrium, a lull before the storm.

Mridul Saggar

December 10, 2025 at 10:03 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

MPC Moves Signal the Arrival of a Post-Cycle Policy Regime

Below-target disinflation, a structural liquidity pivot, and the RBI’s sharp separation of stance from liquidity signal a new level of complexity that requires a post-cycle reading.

Kalyan Ram

December 10, 2025 at 7:01 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Recent data tell a story of two Indias – booming GDP growth and record-low inflation, yet struggling with anaemic industrial growth and rising external risks.

Datametricx

December 6, 2025 at 9:58 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Markets Have the Rupee-Wheel, RBI Keeps the Brakes

RBI will not defend rupee levels, only volatility. For India Inc, the message is blunt: hedge systematically and stop assuming a central-bank safety net.

Babuji K

December 6, 2025 at 3:57 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Rate Cut Shows Rupee is No Obstacle to Easing

The MPC cut rates despite the rupee’s wobble, signalling what policy has long implied. The currency is simply not a factor in the RBI’s rate calculus.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM IST

Monetary Policy

MPC Gets the Flexible Inflation Targeting Mandate Right

The MPC’s well-timed rate cut showed rare institutional clarity, reaffirming its inflation-targeting mandate and restoring flexibility to policy.

Sujit Kumar

December 5, 2025 at 1:06 PM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

Market Wrap

Sensex, Nifty Climb After RBI Rate Cut Boost Sentiment

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

December 5, 2025 at 11:47 AM IST

Opinion

Malhotra Keeps Rate Cuts in Play, but Will He Move Again?

Governor Malhotra kept the easing cycle alive on Friday, yet his real objective may be to extract transmission rather than commit to another cut.

Kalyan Ram

December 5, 2025 at 11:06 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy

RBI Cuts Rates, Reading Softness Beneath the 8.2% Shine

RBI cut rates despite 8.2% growth, signalling it sees early softening beneath the headline and is using rare disinflation space to steady momentum and cool yields.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 5:17 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Avoid June’s Missteps as Stance and Signals Take Centre Stage

The RBI’s December review must prioritise clear signalling and avoid June’s mistakes.

Richard Fargose

December 4, 2025 at 5:28 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Rupee Dilemma: The Case for Strategic Silence

RBI’s reticence, even as the rupee slips past 90, has unsettled markets. But sometimes, saying more only compounds the problem.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 4, 2025 at 4:30 AM IST

A Leaner Rulebook Begins Malhotra’s RBI Legacy

The RBI’s consolidation of thousands of circulars into 244 Master Directions signals a structural shift in regulation and an emerging legacy for Governor Malhotra.

Mint Owl

December 3, 2025 at 7:52 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

Malhotra’s Straight Ball and the Shot Market Played

Markets may have rushed to read a rate-cut signal in the RBI Governor’s recent interview, only for the GDP surprise to challenge their certainty.

Mint Owl

December 2, 2025 at 2:28 AM IST

iStock.com

IMF Reclassifies India’s Exchange-Rate Regime as “Crawl-like arrangement”

BasisPoint Insight

November 26, 2025 at 4:11 PM IST

Malhotra’s RBI: Between Freedom and Friction

Malhotra completes his first year at the RBI next month. His tenure so far reveals a governor intent on pushing boundaries, loosening rules, and learning where freedom ends and systemic risk begins.

R. Gurumurthy

November 17, 2025 at 6:11 AM IST

RBI

Opinion

Reading Sanjay Malhotra’s Silent Dialogue

India’s newest central banker reveals more than he says in his latest MPC press conference. Beneath his composure lies a technocrat negotiating with himself.

Kirti Tarang Pande

October 6, 2025 at 5:37 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Risk-Based Premiums Must Lead to Higher Bank Deposit Insurance Coverage

RBI’s move to risk-based deposit insurance aligns premiums with bank risk, rewarding good banks and enabling higher protection for depositors.

Mint Owl

October 3, 2025 at 6:18 AM IST

Monetary Policy

India’s Economic Balancing Act Faces Tariff and Oil Test

RBI and government reforms aim to cushion growth, but crude and tariff shocks could tip India’s economy off its precarious tightrope.

Alok Kumar Mishra

Iti Vyas

October 2, 2025 at 11:55 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Fixes its June Communication Misfire

The October review showed that central banking is about shaping expectations, not exhausting firepower upfront.

Mint Owl

October 2, 2025 at 9:39 AM IST

RBI Tweets

WRAP

Partly Monetary Policy, Largely Credit Policy

RBI holds repo rate at 5.5% but turns back to credit policy playbook, spurring lending while leaving December wide open for rate cuts.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 1, 2025 at 12:22 PM IST

Poonam Gupta's tweet

Monetary Policy

Banks Poised to Challenge NBFCs As RBI Unshackles Restrictions

RBI relaxes capital market lending, acquisition financing norms and higher share lending limits for banks after decades of restrictions

Krishnadevan V

October 1, 2025 at 10:10 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Breaks Old Orthodoxy with Regulatory Measures

By dismantling outdated restrictions and aligning banks with global norms, the RBI signals a bold break from decades of financial orthodoxy.

Sachin Malhotra

October 1, 2025 at 9:11 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens the Door to Accommodation

By keeping the repo unchanged yet signalling policy space, RBI corrects June’s misstep and restores credibility to its accommodative posture.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

Screengrab

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens Rate Door, December Cut Alive

RBI held repo at 5.5%, stance neutral. Malhotra kept powder dry, with inflation benign and growth risks making December a live meeting.

BasisPoint Insight

October 1, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

Screengrab from a RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

No Matter What MPC Does, RBI Communication has to do Some Heavy Lifting

RBI’s biggest challenge is not what it does on rates, but how it explains the why, why not and what next to markets and the wider economy.

Mint Owl

September 30, 2025 at 12:34 PM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Stay on Hold in October to Preserve Stability

With inflation subdued and growth resilient but external shocks looming, the RBI’s wisest move in October is to pause and preserve stability.

N. Srinivasa Rao

September 30, 2025 at 4:01 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Open Mouths, Open Markets, and RBI’s Signalling Gap

The RBI’s June gamble of frontloaded easing and a sudden neutral stance has backfired, raising borrowing costs. Governor Malhotra now needs both words and deeds.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 27, 2025 at 6:45 AM IST

RBI

Getting credit flow where it matters most

India’s lenders look flush and NBFCs are growing, yet without private capital stepping up, the credit engine risks running idle.

Sujit Kumar

August 22, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

iStock.com

Free UPI is a Bill the State Must Own

India’s UPI success masks a funding gap. Unless the government or RBI pays up, banks and fintechs will keep bleeding to keep it “free”.

Mint Owl

August 21, 2025 at 1:39 PM IST

RBI’s October Call Hinges on Transmission, Tariffs and a Swing Voter

August MPC minutes show caution but not closure. With Ranjan wavering, the RBI keeps cuts alive while waiting on data, tariffs, and transmission.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 20, 2025 at 2:42 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

From Jalanga to Gozaria — RBI’s Long Walk to the People

From persuading the unbanked to guarding against digital mules, RBI’s field visits show how inclusion goals adapt to changing times.

BasisPoint Insight

August 13, 2025 at 10:04 AM IST

RBI

When the RBI Governor’s Words Move More Than Just Markets

Two recent flare-ups show why Sanjay Malhotra must blend facts with empathy because, for an RBI governor, every word can be policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 12, 2025 at 9:36 AM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

RBI Panel Recommends Retaining Weighted Average Call Rate as Policy Anchor

RBI’s internal group recommends retaining the weighted average call rate as the policy anchor, citing its strong correlation with money market rates and effective signal transmission.

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 7:15 AM IST

Storm in a Tea Cup, Signal in the Steam

RBI lets call rate rise to repo, not to shock but to signal. The WACR is still the anchor, and markets now have no excuse to think otherwise.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 22, 2025 at 3:16 AM IST

RBI Tweets

India’s Recovery Plan Is Missing Its Fiscal Half

While the RBI has acted to support growth, the Finance Ministry’s virtual silence since the Budget leaves policy looking oddly one-handed.

Dhananjay Sinha

Kalyan Ram

July 20, 2025 at 6:52 AM IST

CRR Deserves More Respect Than Being Reduced to the “New Normal”

By normalising a lower CRR, the RBI risks trivialising a potent policy tool. Clarity, discipline and market signals could all be at stake.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 17, 2025 at 2:15 PM IST

iStock.com

Call Rate May Stay as the RBI’s Monetary Policy Anchor

Despite shrinking volumes, RBI likely to stick with the call rate as its policy anchor. Governor Malhotra signals no shift to TREPS yet, keeping repo-linked transmission key.

BasisPoint Insight

July 16, 2025 at 9:48 AM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

Monetary Transmission Is Both Alive And Dead Like Schrödinger’s Cat

Liquidity is plentiful, rates are low, yet credit growth is muted. Monetary transmission in India remains a paradox that defies easy solutions.

Yield Scribe

July 7, 2025 at 5:13 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Minutes Reveal Wobbly Logic Behind the Stance Shift

The June MPC minutes show a committee leaning hard into caution, but its reasoning for abandoning the accommodative stance reveals some puzzling dissonance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 21, 2025 at 4:23 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

RBI’s Abrupt Policy Shift Risks Undermining Its Own Credibility

Markets do not fear rate cuts or hikes. They fear a central bank that shifts stance and floods the system with liquidity before the economy is ready.

Kalyan Ram

June 6, 2025 at 3:09 PM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

RBI’s New Dharma: Bold Cuts, Balanced Stance

With its bold cuts in repo rate and CRR, and the shift in stance, the RBI has tried to play its role in pushing growth but has a contingency plan, should things go wrong.

Abheek Barua

June 6, 2025 at 9:49 AM IST

RBI

No Mic For Deputy Governor Gupta In RBI’s Monetary Opera

India’s newest monetary policymaker sat silent through a blockbuster policy. Poonam Gupta’s RBI debut came and went, with barely a word.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 8:13 AM IST

Screengrab of RBI press conference

Monetary Policy

RBI Surprises With 50 bps Rate Cut, But Signals Long Pause Ahead

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to shift its stance to neutral from accommodative signals that the door to further cuts remains open but the threshold to cut again has risen.

BasisPoint Insight

June 6, 2025 at 4:46 AM IST

LAF@25: SDF – From A Corridor To A Comfort Zone

Part 2 of our LAF@25 series explores how the Standing Deposit Facility may be steering India’s liquidity corridor towards a de facto floor regime.

R. Gurumurthy

May 20, 2025 at 3:37 AM IST

RBI Need Not Rush To 5% As Liquidity Does The Heavy-Lifting

The RBI has uncoupled its stance from liquidity. That may make aggressive rate cuts less likely, even if monetary conditions stay easy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 19, 2025 at 5:56 AM IST

RBI Tweets

LAF, SDF, MSF - Gupta’s Learning Curve Begins With ABCs Of WACR Vs SORR

The new RBI deputy governor takes charge amid a fluid framework and the push to convert surplus liquidity into transmission. It is more than the alphabet soup of acronyms that confronts her.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 3, 2025 at 4:25 AM IST

What Role Should SDF Play In RBI’s Next Liquidity Framework?

As the RBI rethinks its operating framework, the SDF’s function—transitional fix or structural floor—demands sharper institutional clarity.

Kalyan Ram

April 24, 2025 at 3:20 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Growth Trumps Inflation in RBI’s April Minutes

With global shocks mounting, MPC minutes reveal deep concern over India’s growth path. Rate cut, dovish stance and liquidity flood now fully explained.

BasisPoint Insight

April 23, 2025 at 1:14 PM IST

RBI Can Undertake Unprecedented Interest Rate Easing – If It Wants To

With the convenient definitions of real rate and potential growth, the RBI can justify deeper rate cuts than anyone currently expects.

Basis Pundit

April 21, 2025 at 8:51 AM IST

RBI's Supervision Needs Repair, Not Just More Rituals

Repeated lapses in oversight raise hard questions about whether India’s banking stability owes more to chance than to regulatory rigour.

Banker Emeritus

April 11, 2025 at 9:21 AM IST

RBI’s Quiet Fix For IndusInd Works, But Some Transparency Won’t Hurt Either

The RBI’s actions carry a preference for behind-the-scenes coordination, applying nudges or occasional pressure, rather than overt intervention.

Manoj Rane

April 11, 2025 at 7:28 AM IST

RBI

RBI’s Quiet Confidence Lets Markets Set The Rupee’s Course

As global currencies wobble under tariff pressures, the RBI is betting on India’s fundamentals to anchor the rupee—and avoiding panic interventions.

Richard Fargose

April 9, 2025 at 4:35 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism Hinges On Questionable Insular Assumptions

Despite warning of trade risks, the central bank proceeds as if India’s economy exists in a vacuum

Dhananjay Sinha

April 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM IST

India’s Soft Power Can’t Plug A Hard Trade Hole

Services exports and remittances have held up. That doesn't mean India is shielded from China’s export onslaught.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 12:41 PM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Monetary Policy

RBI Goes All In On Dovishness, Outdoes Most Dovish Of Pundits

The central bank has done everything the market hoped—and more. What matters now is how far ahead the market decides to run.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 5:46 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Resist Calls To Reopen The Fixed Rate Repo Window

Calls to revive the fixed repo window are gaining ground. The RBI must resist — or risk undoing a decade of hard-won liquidity discipline.

Basis Pundit

April 7, 2025 at 2:44 PM IST

RBI At 90: A Quiet Force Built On Trust, Selflessness, And service

As it marks 90 years, the RBI reaffirms its quiet power — a legacy of trust, selflessness, and unwavering commitment to public good.

Alpana Killawala

April 1, 2025 at 10:31 AM IST

Rangan Datta Wiki/ CC

The Bureau

RBI Bulletin Warns of Risks to Inflation from Second-Round Effects of West Asia Conflict

Equities Extend Decline as Oil Surge and Strait Blockade Weigh on Sentiment

US Tariff Refund: India’s $12 Billion Gain Hinges on Case-to-Case Negotiations

NSE Moves Closer to IPO as SEBI Settlement Panel Finalises Penalty in Co-Location Case: Reports

RBI Flags Second-Round Inflation Risks from West Asia Conflict

EU to Widen CBAM Tax Net to 180 More Products

Deficient Monsoon, Iran War: A Double Shock to India’s Rural Economy

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk