BasisPoint Groupthink

February 22, 2026 at 11:24 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

MPC Review

MPC Opts for Patience as Data Revisions Loom, Trade Deals Lift Growth Outlook

BasisPoint Insight

February 20, 2026 at 1:26 PM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

MPC Review

Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and the Road Hereafter

Despite ample liquidity and 125-bps easing, monetary transmission stayed uneven. Bonds reflected supply fears, policy uncertainty, and muted demand.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

February 7, 2026 at 1:51 PM IST

MPC Review

Baby Steps, Festina Lente, and RBI’s June Policy Misstep

RBI once prized gradualism. A slower easing path may have aligned markets and transmission better than June’s big-bang move.

Kalyan Ram

February 7, 2026 at 10:51 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

RBI’s First Step Timely, But Guardrails Needed to Prevent Gaming of Fraud

Small-value digital frauds are individually minor, but collectively corrosive to larger public trust. The RBI’s proposed compensation framework is timely, but it must be designed to deter fraud, not become opportunity for others to farm it.

Srinath Sridharan

February 7, 2026 at 4:08 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

Liquidity Signals Keep Transmission in Focus

RBI held rates steady, but without fresh liquidity measures, bond yields hardened, funding spreads remained wide, and transmission risks took centre stage.

Shailendra Jhingan

February 6, 2026 at 12:25 PM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

MPC Review

RBI Signals the End of Easing as Markets Begin to Question Comfort

Policy stability risks being mistaken for financial stability. The easing cycle may have ended, but the adjustment it triggered is far from complete.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 6, 2026 at 10:53 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI and the Bond Market Are Living in Parallel Worlds

Bond yields now reflect supply pressures, not policy signals. Until that changes, the RBI and bond markets will continue to operate in parallel worlds.

Kalyan Ram

February 6, 2026 at 10:37 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

Malhotra Signals Rates to Stay Low for Prolonger Period, Leaves Further Cuts to MPC

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 8:51 AM IST

MPC Review

Why the RBI Chose Optionality Over Precision

With inflation benign and borrowing risks rising, the RBI opted for flexibility over flourish, signalling support without locking itself into specifics.

Kalyan Ram

February 6, 2026 at 6:29 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI Raises Inflation Projections Marginally for Apr-Sep; Defers FY27 Forecast to April

RBI has nudged up near-term inflation projections on higher precious metal prices, while deferring FY27 forecasts to April pending the new CPI series, maintaining a broadly benign outlook.

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 6:27 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI Raises GDP Growth Projections for Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep by 20 bps; Defers FY27 Outlook

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is scheduled to issue a revised GDP series on February 27, with the base year revised to 2022-23 from 2021-12.

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 5:46 AM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

MPC Review

RBI Holds Rates, Signals Comfort With Growth–Inflation Mix

The RBI held rates and its neutral stance, underscoring comfort with resilient growth and soft inflation while signalling patience ahead of data revisions and global uncertainty.

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 5:38 AM IST

MPC Review

Silence Is the RBI’s Strongest Signal This Week

With rates on hold and markets already speculating far ahead, the Reserve Bank’s best contribution may be to resist the temptation to explain the future.

Kalyan Ram

February 5, 2026 at 2:29 PM IST

MPC Review

Solving RBI’s Liquidity Conundrum

RBI’s record liquidity infusion in 2025-26 has failed to ease conditions as dollar sales, cash leakage and fiscal hoarding drain surplus.

Gaura Sen Gupta

February 5, 2026 at 6:09 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

Liquidity Is Plenty, Confidence Is Scarce

Despite deep easing and ample liquidity, markets signal stress. Transmission has stalled, making confidence, not rates, the binding constraint.

Madhavi Arora

February 5, 2026 at 5:29 AM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

MPC Review

RBI’s Easiest Decision May Be to Do Nothing

RBI likely to hold rates steady as growth holds firm and risks shift offshore

K. Srinivasa Rao

February 5, 2026 at 3:13 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI’s Rate-Cut Problem Is Not the Cut — It Is the Plumbing

India’s rate cuts are failing to move bond yields because the liquidity plumbing is broken, forcing markets to follow overnight rates rather than RBI signals.

D. Tripati Rao and Ritesh Gupta

February 4, 2026 at 6:43 AM IST

MPC Review

When Monetary Space is Spent Too Early

Markets are reacting less to fiscal arithmetic and more to a policy sequence that has left limited monetary room just as pressures build.

R. Gurumurthy

February 4, 2026 at 5:18 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI policy: Goldilocks, FX, and the Windscreen

A rare Goldilocks mix of strong growth and ultra-low inflation set the stage for a finely balanced policy call, even as a sliding rupee tested the RBI’s nerve.

Vivek Kumar

December 7, 2025 at 5:48 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

Policy Reflects Growth Concerns

Repo cut and liquidity infusion signalled the RBI’s deeper worry that growth momentum is softening despite strong headline numbers.

Rupa Rege Nitsure

December 5, 2025 at 8:48 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI Rewriting FX Market Playbook Amid Global Turbulence

RBI’s silence as the rupee swings signals a strategic shift—no more one-way bets, no guaranteed defence. The playbook is being rewritten.

Richard Fargose

April 8, 2025 at 9:21 AM IST

MPC Review

The Bureau