India Aug-Sep Rainfall Likely Below Normal as El Niño Strengthens

BasisPoint Insight

July 31, 2026 at 1:21 PM IST

RBI’s Tightrope Narrows as Oil, Rupee and Inflation Risks Rise

Oil volatility, rupee pressure and uncertain inflation leave the RBI little room as it balances price stability, liquidity and growth.

Madhavankutty G

July 31, 2026 at 12:41 PM IST

Istock.com

Policy Caution Likely As Inflation Risks Loom

Rising oil prices, patchy monsoon and shipping disruptions are narrowing India’s inflation cushion, making a cautious RBI policy stance increasingly likely.

Anubhuti Sahay

July 27, 2026 at 4:01 AM IST

RBI

The Unending Uncertainty

Inflation is up-trending, oil is volatile, and geopolitics keeps flaring up. And still, growth refuses to buckle. Here's why standing still may be RBI MPC's smartest move yet.

Aastha Gudwani

July 17, 2026 at 12:06 PM IST

Istock.com

Trimmed Mean Inflation: Cutting Through the Noise—or Trimming Reality?

Trimmed mean inflation can cut through volatile price swings and sharpen the policy signal. But it also risks becoming a convenient metric that bears little resemblance to the inflation households actually feel.

Deepa Vasudevan

July 17, 2026 at 3:26 AM IST

istock.com

Irrigation, Not Rain, Will Shape the Future of Indian Agriculture

India's irrigation network has grown rapidly. The next phase must focus on efficiency, micro-irrigation and making every drop of water work harder.

Sujit Kumar*

July 9, 2026 at 4:25 AM IST

Istock.com

India’s Water Crisis Is the Price of Years of Policy Neglect

India's water crisis did not begin with this year's weak monsoon. It is the result of years of treating water as an abundant resource.

G. Chandrashekhar

July 3, 2026 at 6:45 AM IST

istock.com

Rupee May Rally to 92/$1 Before Returning to 95 by March

BasisPoint Insight

June 30, 2026 at 11:40 AM IST

Rupee Nears Another Goldilocks Phase as External Risks Recede

Falling crude prices, stronger capital inflows and RBI measures are easing pressure on the rupee, setting the stage for a more stable USD/INR outlook.

Gaura Sen Gupta

June 30, 2026 at 5:58 AM IST

istock.com

The RBI has Delayed Tightening Without Abandoning it

Falling crude has eased pressure for rate hikes, but inflation risks persist, giving the RBI more time without changing its eventual policy path.

Nishat Anjum

Richard Fargose

June 26, 2026 at 5:20 AM IST

Linkedin/PoonamGupta

Weak Monsoon has an Inflation Bias

Rainfall deficits push food prices up more sharply than rainfall surpluses bring them down

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

June 23, 2026 at 4:00 AM IST

Istock.com

When the Strongest Move Is Not to Move

As inflation risks collide with softer growth, the RBI's hold reflects a harder test of monetary policy: knowing when not to overreact.

Sparsh Chhabra

June 18, 2026 at 11:16 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The Indian economy grew faster than expected in January-March, even as the RBI cut its 2026-27 growth forecast by 30 bps to 6.6%.

Datametricx

June 6, 2026 at 12:30 PM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI MPC raises India FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% earlier

The Monetary Policy Committee raised its forecast due to higher crude oil prices. Global supply chain disruptions, commodity price shocks, uncertainty over distribution of southwest monsoon, and El Niño conditions also pose upside risks, it said.

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2026 at 6:29 AM IST

istock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Cuts India’s FY27 GDP Growth Forecast to 6.6% From 6.9% Earlier

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2026 at 6:20 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Expected to Hold Rates, Focus Turns to Inflation and the Rupee

The RBI is expected to keep rates unchanged, but rising oil prices, a weak rupee and inflation risks could shift focus towards future policy tightening.

Team BasisPoint

June 3, 2026 at 6:22 AM IST

istock.com

Monetary Policy

Risk-Reward Trade-Off Favours a Hawkish Hold by RBI MPC

RBI may hold rates, but rupee pressure, crude risks and Taylor-rule arithmetic argue for a more hawkish policy tone.

Abhishek Upadhyay

June 2, 2026 at 3:04 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The Indian economy appears to be bracing for another setback, with the weather bureau projecting southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026 at 90% of the long-period average, the lowest since 2015.

Datametricx

May 30, 2026 at 10:42 AM IST

India’s Monsoon Risk is Really an Inflation and Rural Demand Test

Below-normal rain, El Niño and heatwaves could turn India’s monsoon into a test of food inflation, crop resilience and rural demand.

Sakshi Gupta

May 30, 2026 at 5:54 AM IST

iStock.com

India Cuts Monsoon Rain Forecast to 90%

BasisPoint Insight

May 29, 2026 at 8:31 AM IST

India’s Stagflation Narrative Is Finally Catching Up With Reality

India’s inflation shock is deepening even before fuel, food and currency pressures fully transmit through the economy.

Dhananjay Sinha

May 16, 2026 at 4:04 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Sugar Export Ban May No Longer Be Just About Sugar

Rising oil prices, ethanol demand and tightening sugar balances suggest India’s latest export ban may reflect fuel-security concerns as much as food inflation worries.

G. Chandrashekhar

May 15, 2026 at 9:58 AM IST

iStock.com

Is Cotton Mission a Strategic Sovereignty or a Statistical Chimera

India’s cotton revival plan aims to reclaim self-sufficiency, but low yields, weak R&D and climate risks may test its ambitions.

G. Chandrashekhar

May 6, 2026 at 12:16 PM IST

Istock.com

The Bureau