US-China Extend Tariff Truce, Trump-Putin to Meet Friday

GLOBAL MOOD: Risk-Off
Drivers: US-China Trade Relations, Geopolitical Tensions, Trump Putin Meet

Investors are taking a cautious approach ahead of key economic data, including US inflation figures, and ongoing trade developments. The tariff truce between the US and China provides temporary relief but concerns about US monetary policy and geopolitical tensions are weighing on sentiment.

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 -India July Inflation Rate
 -US July CPI
 -Earnings: NMDC, ONGC

THE BIG STORY
The US and China have extended their tariff truce for another 90 days, avoiding higher duties on Chinese goods ahead of the crucial holiday season. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to suspend higher tariffs until November 10, 2025, maintaining a 30% tariff on Chinese imports and 10% on US imports. This move prevents US tariffs from rising to 145%, and Chinese tariffs on US goods from reaching 125%. Meanwhile, Trump stated that US tariffs on Indian oil purchases from Russia have significantly impacted Russia's economy, which is struggling under global pressures.

In related news, US President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss efforts to end Russia's war on Ukraine, adding another layer of geopolitical significance to the ongoing global trade and diplomatic conversations.

DATA SPOTLIGHT
UK retail sales rose by 1.8% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis in July 2025, falling short of the expected 2.1% increase and slowing from a 2.7% rise in June. Food sales grew by 3.9%, largely driven by food inflation, although warm weather and a busy sporting calendar also contributed to the increase. Non-food sales saw a modest 1.4% growth, with fashion performing well early in the month before slowing as weather conditions worsened. Homeware and indoor furniture continued to show steady gains.

Takeaway: The data highlights that while UK food sales are benefiting from higher prices, overall retail sales growth remains subdued, struggling to offset rising costs. 

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

• US Stocks fall ahead of inflation data
  
  • Investors await inflation data to assess interest rate outlook.
  • Micron Technology raised its Q4 revenue forecast, boosting shares by 4%.
  • Intel gained 3.5% after CEO Lip-Bu Tan visited the White House following Trump’s call for his removal.
    
    

• US Treasury yields steady ahead of key economic data
  
  • Investors focused on trade developments and key US economic data.
  • Traders are betting on potential Fed rate cuts later this year
    
    

• US dollar gains ahead of inflation report
  
  • The Dollar Index strengthened ahead of the release of a key inflation report
  • The dollar index rose 0.3% to 98.52, recovering from last week's 0.4% drop.
    
    

• Crude oil prices steady ahead of Trump-Putin talks
  
  • Investors eyed upcoming talks between Trump and Putin in Alaska, focusing on US policy towards Russian oil exports.
  • Brent crude rose 0.06%, closing at $66.63 a barrel.

Day’s Ledger
Economic Data:

• India July Inflation Rate
• US July CPI
• OPEC Monthly Report

Corporate Actions:

• Earnings: Jyothy Labs, MRF, Natco Pharma, NHPC, NMDC, NMDC Steel, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Oil India, Rail Vikas Nigam, Suzlon Energy, Zydus Lifesciences
• Nazara Tech to consider bonus share issue
• Premier Explosives to consider fund raising

Policy Events:

• RBA Interest Rate Decision
• Fed Barkin Speech  
• Fed Schmid Speech 

TICKERS TO WATCH

• ADANI DEFENCE enters in JV with Prime Aero, to acquire 100% of Indamer Technics via Horizon Aero Solutions.
• ASTRAL to buy 80% in Nexelon Chem for up to ₹1.20 billion
• BATA INDIA net profit ₹517 million vs ₹1.74 billion a year ago
• BEML wins ₹18.88 bln order for Linke-Hofmann-Busch coaches
• IHCL to acquire controlling stakes in ANK Hotels and Pride Hospitality for up to ₹ 2.04 billion; 51% in ANK Hotels for up to ₹ 1.1 billion.
• JSW STEEL slams lenders in SC over Bhushan Power EBITDA share row
• MEDI ASSIST:  BESSEMER INDIA to sell up to 4% stake via block deals worth ₹ 5.6 billion at ₹ 507/share.
• PFIZER rolls out 20-valent pneumococcal vaccine for Indian adults
• RAINBOW CHILDREN to buy 76% stake in Assam women & child hospital

MUST READ

• Zelenskyy urges India to limit Russia energy exports
• Equity MF Inflows Hit Record High in July; Industry AUM Tops ₹75 Trillion
• India’s Costliest Bond Faces Clock as Tata Talks Advance
• Import the Seed Technology, Not the Crop
• Resist Tariff Pressure, But Do Reassess India’s Farm Competitiveness
• Critical to have states' confidence to advance NEP vision, says Parl panel
• Bond windfall cushions NII strain for PSBs as margins shrink on rate cuts
• RBI said to have sold at least $5 billion to boost rupee
• ECB is seen delaying final rate cut of the cycle until December
• Vedanta rejects Viceroy's claim its Namibia zinc assets are worthless
• Reliance Consumer Products takes Campa beverages to Sri Lanka market

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

Have a great trading day.

Indo-US Relations and the Tariff War: Strategic Drift or Calculated Brinkmanship?

Tariffs have become the modern warships; no soldiers, no ports, just policy pressure with global consequences. In his second term, Trump’s trade tactics are pushing India to walk the tightrope of strategic patience.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) analysis breaks down the history, the high-stakes manoeuvres, and what comes next.