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The Morning Edge: US Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites, Warns of More if No Peace Deal

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

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By Richard Fargose

June 23, 2025 at 1:27 AM IST

QUICK SNAPSHOT
Global Sentiment: Risk-off
Factors:  US Joins War In West Asia

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 - India June provisional PMI data
 - US FOMC Member Bowman speaks

THE BIG STORY
In a dramatic escalation of tensions in West Asia, President Donald Trump on Saturday announced that US forces had joined Israel in launching what he called a "very successful attack" on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. In a televised Oval Office address, flanked by top defence and foreign policy officials, Trump declared that Iran’s key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow had been “completely and totally obliterated.” The operation marks a turning point in the nine-day conflict that began with Israeli strikes on June 13.

Iran, vowing to reserve "all options" in response, launched a heavier round of retaliatory missile fire overnight, injuring at least 86 people in Israel, according to its health ministry. On the streets of Iran, fear and uncertainty spread as civilians braced for further escalation.  Trump, meanwhile, issued a stark warning: unless Tehran agrees to a peace deal, more devastating attacks could follow.

DATA
A key gauge of future US economic activity, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index declined by 0.1% to 99.0 in May, marking its sixth consecutive monthly fall and triggering a recession warning. The index was weighed down by weak manufacturing orders, rising jobless claims, a fall in building permits, and ongoing consumer pessimism. April’s figure was revised to a sharper 1.4% decline, the steepest drop since the early pandemic period in 2020.

Meanwhile, in the UK, retail sales volumes fell 2.7% in May, the largest monthly decline since December 2023, following a surge in consumer spending in April. The drop was significantly steeper than the 0.5% decline forecast by economists, indicating softening demand despite earlier strength in food, clothing, and home goods purchases.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
US stocks closed lower on Friday as geopolitical concerns around the Israel-Iran conflict kept investors cautious. Markets remained volatile throughout the day, reflecting heightened uncertainty. For the week, the S&P 500 posted a decline, while the Nasdaq managed a modest gain. Technology mega caps, including Nvidia, weighed heavily on both indexes, reversing some recent momentum. On the upside, Kroger shares surged 9.8% after the company raised its annual sales growth forecast, signalling resilience in consumer staples. In contrast, Accenture dropped 6.9% after reporting a decline in third-quarter new bookings, sparking concerns about corporate tech spending.

US Treasury yields edged lower on Friday after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said rate cuts should be considered as early as July, marking a dovish shift amid persistent inflation uncertainty. His remarks contrasted with other Fed officials, including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, who signalled there was no urgency to ease policy, underscoring a growing divide within the central bank. The benchmark 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.375%, down from 4.395% on Wednesday, as Waller's comments and elevated geopolitical concerns in the West Asia boosted demand for safe-haven assets. 

The US dollar rose to a three-week high against the yen and gained on the Swiss franc on Friday, as easing West Asia tensions buoyed risk appetite. Iran's signal to continue diplomatic engagement with Europe over its conflict with Israel helped calm markets, boosting the greenback’s appeal outside traditional safe-haven trades on Firday. The dollar index remained flat on the day despite hawkish sentiment, as dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggesting rate cuts could begin as early as July capped gains. For the week, however, the index rose 0.6%, supported by strong demand earlier in the week amid geopolitical stress. The euro climbed 0.3% to $1.1528.

Brent crude oil prices fell on Friday as the US imposed fresh sanctions on Iran, signalling a diplomatic rather than military response and easing fears of imminent supply disruptions. Brent crude futures dropped $1.84, or 2.33%, to settle at $77.01 a barrel on Friday, giving back some of the week’s gains.

DAY’S LEDGER

Economic Data

  • India June provisional PMI data
  • Eurozone June provisional PMI data
  • UK June provisional PMI data
  • US June provisional PMI data
  • US May existing home sales data

Corporate Actions

  • Mangal Credit and Fincorp to consider fund raising
  • Astec LifeSciences  to consider fund raising
  • Scoda Tubes  to approve Jan-Mar consider earnings

Policy Events

  • US FOMC Member Bowman speaks
  • German Buba President Nagel speaks

TICKERS

  • BAJEL PROJECTS secured EPC contract worth ₹4.0 billion for transmission line and substation bay works in Madhya Pradesh.
  • BANDHAN BANK informed that RBI extended tenure of Arun Kumar Singh as Additional Director by one year from June 24.
  • BANK OF INDIA board meeting on June 26 to deliberate raising long-term funds through infrastructure bonds.
  • BHARAT ELECTRONICS received additional orders worth ₹5.85 billion since June 5. Orders include missile sighting systems, communication gear, jammers, spares, and services.
  • CEAT board to meet on 25 June to evaluate fundraising via money market instruments, CPs, or NCDs.
  • GRANULES INDIA informed that US FDA completed inspection of API Unit-I at Sangareddy with one Form 483 observation.
  • LT FOODS informed that US imposed 340.27% countervailing duty on ECOPURE's organic soybean meal exports.
  • NLC INDIA’s subsidiary NLC INDIA RENEWABLES received LoA from TNGECL for 250 MW/500 MWh battery storage.
  • SIGNATURE GLOBAL (INDIA) board to meet on June 25 to consider raising funds via non-convertible debentures.
  • SUBEX integrated embedded Generative AI into HYPERSENSE platform for revenue assurance and fraud management.
  • TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES expanded SDV capabilities with new automotive delivery centres in Germany and engineering hub in Romania.
  • WAAREE RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES received additional EPC order worth ₹2.47 billion for a 2012.47 MWp solar project.
  • ZEN TECHNOLOGIES acquired majority stake in TISA AEROSPACE, a defence firm developing loitering munitions and UAVs.

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