The Morning Edge: US March Imports Hit Record $342.7 Billion Amid Consumer Goods Stockpiling on Tariff Worries

QUICK SNAPSHOT
Global Sentiment:  Risk-on 
Factors:   Tariff negotiations, China PMI, US GDP

TODAY’S WATCHLIST

• China April Caixin Manufacturing PMI 
• US January-March advance GDP estimate
• US March core PCE index
• India Cabinet Meeting

THE BIG STORY
The US goods trade gap ballooned to an all-time high in March as businesses front-loaded imports ahead of President Trump's tariff deadlines—a surge so severe that top banks now project the economy contracted last quarter. Goldman Sachs slashed its GDP estimate to -0.8% annualized while JPMorgan anticipates a steeper -1.75% decline, a dramatic reversal from December quarter’s 2.4% growth. 

US Goods imports soared $16.3 billion to an all-time high of $342.7 billion. They were driven by a 27.5% jump in imports of consumer goods. There were also solid increases in imports of automotive vehicles and capital goods. But imports of industrial supplies, which had been boosted by non-monetary gold, declined 13.5%. Food imports fell as did those of other goods. The Census Bureau data reveals how tariff panic distorted trade flows: while some imported goods stockpiled in warehouses, the deficit expansion still promises to deliver a sharp drag on Wednesday's advance GDP report—set to land symbolically on Trump's 100th day in office.

DATA
US consumer confidence plunged to a near five-year low in April, with the Conference Board's index dropping 7.9 points to 86.0 – significantly below economists' 87.5 forecast – as tariff concerns darkened economic prospects. The Expectations Index collapsed 12.5 points to 54.4, its weakest since October 2011 and deep into recessionary territory, while the Present Situation Index edged down 0.9 points to 133.5. This stark divergence reflects growing pessimism about future conditions despite current relative stability. 

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday in a volatile session, as investors digested mixed corporate earnings and trade policy developments. The Dow was lifted by strong performances from Honeywell (+5.4%) and Sherwin-Williams (+4.8%), while Coca-Cola (+0.8%) also contributed after beating estimates. However, General Motors dipped 0.6% despite solid quarterly results, as its decision to withdraw annual guidance overshadowed the numbers.

US Treasury yields fell for a sixth consecutive session, dropping 4.6 basis points to 4.17% – its lowest level in three weeks – following disappointing economic data. Longer-dated bonds saw sharper moves, with the 30-year yield declining 5 basis points to 4.6431%, while the more policy-sensitive 2-year yield edged down 2.9 basis points to 3.656%. The sustained rally across maturities reflects growing market expectations for potential Fed easing amid signs of economic softening. 

The US dollar edged higher on Tuesday, with the dollar index rising 0.2% to 99.23, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's optimistic trade comments provided temporary support. However, the greenback remained on track for its steepest monthly decline against the euro since November 2022, reflecting persistent market scepticism. 

Brent crude oil prices declined sharply on Tuesday as escalating trade tensions and deepening recession fears rattled investor confidence and clouded the outlook for global demand. US crude fell 2.63% to settle at $60.42 per barrel, while Brent dropped 2.44% to close at $64.25. The sell-off reflects mounting concern that President Trump's prolonged trade war is beginning to weigh heavily on economic activity, fuelling expectations of weaker fuel consumption ahead.

Day’s Ledger

Economic Data:

• China April Caixin Manufacturing PMI
• Japan March Industrial Production data
• US January-March advance GDP estimate
• US March core PCE index
• US weekly crude oil inventories data
• US April ADP Non-farm employment data

Corporate Actions:

• Jan-Mar Earnings:   Adani Power,  Ajanta Pharma, BEML Land Assets, Equitas Small Finance Bank, Go Fashion (India), Indus Towers, Jindal Steel & Power,  KSB, Orient Green Power Company, SRG Housing Finance, Steel City Securities, Phoenix Mills, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, Vedanta, Bandhan Bank, Coromandel International, CRISIL, Exide Industries, Godrej Agrovet, Greaves Cotton, Indian Oil Corporation, JSW Infrastructure, Krystal Integrated Services, LG Balakrishnan & Bros, MOIL, Punjab Chemicals & Crop Protection, Skipper, Sona BLW Precision Forgings, Sundram Fasteners, Federal Bank , Vardhman Acrylics, Varun Beverages, Aeroflex Industries, Paras Defence and Space Technologies, Raghav Productivity Enhancers, R. S. Software (India), 
• Bank of India to consider fund raising
• Bhandari Hosiery Exports to consider fund raising
• Indus Towers to consider dividend, bonus share issue and buyback

Policy Events:

• Union Cabinet to meet

TICKERS

• ADANI GREEN allots shares worth ₹4.99 billion to promoter group
• Alembic Pharma gets US FDA establishment inspection report for Panelav unit
• Ambuja Cements reports 9% decline in net profit for March quarter
• BPCL reports 24% drop in net profit, but outperforms analyst expectations
• CESC gets regulator nod for power deal with Tata Power
• Five-Star business finance reports 18% growth in net profit, driven by loan book and AUM growth
• Glenmark clarifies fake Telma 40 batch not linked to company
• IndusInd Bank CEO Kathpalia resigns over derivatives scandal
• Praj Industries, Uhde Inventa-Fischer join hands to offer Polylactic Acid production tech
• SBI, Land Ports authority tie up to boost trade and banking services
• Star Health reports 99.6% drop in profit on widening underwriting loss
• Trent reports weakest revenue growth in 16 quarters, net profit marginally exceeds expectations

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