The Morning Edge -Trump Tariffs, FOMC Minutes

President Donald Trump is at it again, this time floating the idea of slapping fresh 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. The official word could come as soon as April 2, adding another layer to his ever-expanding trade battles. This latest move follows steel and aluminium duties set to kick in next month, signalling that the protectionist push is far from over. Speaking from his Mar-a-Lago resort, Trump hinted that the levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could go even higher over time. His message to companies was blunt: set up shop in the US or get taxed. To soften the blow, he suggested businesses would get a grace period before the full tariffs take effect. With these remarks, Trump has made it clear that his trade policy is only getting tougher. Investors, global supply chains, and trading partners might want to brace for impact.

Data

Foreign holdings of US Treasuries declined in December as Japan and China, the two largest foreign holders of US government debt, reduced their portfolios. Overall holdings dropped to $8.513 trillion from $8.633 trillion in November and a peak of $8.679 trillion in September. Japan, the top foreign holder, trimmed its stake to $1.060 trillion from $1.087 trillion, while China, the second-largest holder, cut its holdings to $759 billion from $768.6 billion. The pullback highlights shifting dynamics in global demand for US debt amid evolving economic and geopolitical conditions.

Markets

Overnight

With earnings season winding down, all three major US stock indexes flipped green in the final minutes on Tuesday, showcasing the market’s resilience. The S&P 500 inched to a record high, closing a choppy session as investors braced for Fed minutes and weighed lingering geopolitical risks. Intel stole the spotlight, surging 16.1% on reports of potential breakup deals involving rivals Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom. As the Fed’s next moves and global uncertainties loom, markets remained on edge, balancing optimism with caution.

US Treasury yields climbed on Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious stance on rate cuts triggered a global debt selloff, leading investors to reassess expectations for monetary easing. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 7.8 basis points to 4.554%, reflecting concerns over inflation and a slower-than-expected pace of Fed rate cuts. Market sentiment was further pressured by ongoing tariff uncertainties, though analysts suggest this may be more about negotiation tactics than long-term policy shifts. 

The US dollar gained ground against major currencies on Tuesday, bolstered by safe-haven demand amid ongoing tariff concerns and developments in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. The greenback rose 0.35% to 152.03 against the Japanese yen and strengthened 0.28% to 0.903 versus the Swiss franc. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of peers, climbed 0.28% to 107.02, while the euro fell 0.31% to $1.0449. The dollar’s broad-based strength reflects its appeal as a safe haven amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Brent crude oil rose 0.82% to settle at $75.84 a barrel on Tuesday, as traders closely watched the outcome of US-Russia talks in Riyadh and weighed the possibility of increased supply if Washington agrees to lift sanctions on Russian oil. The market’s cautious optimism reflected hopes for a potential breakthrough in geopolitical tensions, though uncertainty over the talks kept price gains in check. Investors remain on edge, balancing supply concerns with the potential for shifting global energy dynamics.

 

Day’s Ledger

Economy

• Japan January Trade Data
• Australia October-December Wage Price Index
• UK January CPI Data
• UK January PPI Input Data
• US January Housing Starts Data

Companies 

• Ace Men Engg Works to announce December quarterly earnings
• Flomic Global Logistics to consider warrants issue
• Kothari Industrial Corp to consider preferential issue of shares
• Nava Ltd to consider buyback of shares
• Roni Households to consider bonus shares issue
• Vista Pharmaceuticals to consider preferential issue of shares

Policy

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand to Announce Interest Rate Decision
• European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting 
• Minutes of US FOMC Meeting of January 28-29

Tickers 

• AUROBINDO PHARMA announced that The US FDA concluded the inspection of at Eugia Steriles, a stepdown subsidiary of the company, with 5 observations, which are procedural in nature.
  
  
• CELLO WORLD reported a fire incident in one of the furnaces at the Daman unit of Cello Industries, its wholly owned subsidiary, on February 18. 
  
  
• CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA has awarded an order worth ₹6.90 billion for the manufacture and supply of 30 BLSS (spine car) rakes on a turnkey basis to the government company Braithwaite & Co. under the Ministry of Railways. 
  
  
• INFOSYS has entered into a strategic, long-term collaboration with Lufthansa Group (LHG) and Lufthansa Systems GmbH (LSY) to accelerate digital transformation and innovation in the aviation sector.
  
  
• LARSEN & TOUBRO has acquired the remaining 26% stake in L&T Special Steels and Heavy Forgings from the Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) and has also executed the Joint Venture Termination Agreement with NPCIL. 
  
  
• MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVELOPERS has partnered with Livingstone Infra for a cluster redevelopment project in Mahalaxmi, with a gross development value of ₹16.50 billion.
  
  
• PIRAMAL PHARMA announced that the US FDA conducted a general GMP inspection at the company’s Turbhe facility during February 11–17 and issued a Form 483 with 6 observations. 
  
  
• RAIL VIKAS NIGAM has received a letter of acceptance for a project worth ₹ 5.54 billion from Rail Infrastructure Development Company (Karnataka). 
  
  
• RBM INFRACON has received a service order worth ₹ 72.2 million from Reliance Industries for mechanical works for Phase-1B.
  
  
• TATA STEEL said Neath Port Talbot Council Planning Committee has approved Tata Steel UK's proposal to install a state-of-the-art Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) in Port Talbot. Backed by £500 million from the UK Government, the project aims to preserve 5,000 jobs and significantly reduce the site’s carbon footprint.
  
  
• TRANSFORMERS & RECTIFIERS INDIA has secured orders worth ₹ 1.66 billion from Hyosung T&D India for the supply of single-phase coupling transformers and single-phase transformers for TBCB projects.
  
  

Must Read

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• Top Social Security official exits after clash with Musk’s DOGE over data 
• US, Russia forge ahead on peace talks, without Ukraine

Daily Mantra
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