The Morning Edge: Trump Hints at Auto Tariffs Exemptions Likely for Many Nations

President Trump set the stage for fresh market turbulence on Monday, announcing upcoming tariffs on cars, aluminium, and pharmaceuticals while reviving his unusual push to acquire Greenland. "We've been ripped off by every country," Trump declared, framing both moves as matters of national security. The Commerce Department added to the drama by revealing plans for a new "External Revenue Service" to collect these tariffs, set to launch April 2—the same day the new trade penalties take effect.

While the tariffs threaten to disrupt key industries, the Greenland comments introduced an unexpected geopolitical wrinkle, drawing sharp criticism from Danish leaders. Together, these developments signal an administration doubling down on economic nationalism, leaving businesses and investors bracing for more uncertainty. The only certainty? April could bring major shocks to global trade.

Data
US business activity showed signs of recovery in March, with the S&P Global flash Composite PMI Output Index rising to 53.5—up from 51.6 in February—as the services sector drove growth amid warmer weather. However, manufacturing slipped back into contraction after two months of expansion, reflecting persistent challenges. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. The survey conducted between March 12-21 also revealed a concerning surge in input costs, with prices paid by businesses hitting a near two-year high across both manufacturing and services. Companies remained hesitant to hire, signalling caution over looming risks—including import tariffs and government spending cuts—that could dampen growth later this year. 

Markets
Overnight
US stocks indices rose on Monday with the S&P 500 soared to its highest close in over two weeks, fuelled by a rebound in tech giants Nvidia and Tesla amid signs the Trump administration might temper its aggressive tariff stance. Tesla led the charge, skyrocketing nearly 12%—its biggest single-day jump since early November—as investors bet on potential tariff relief for key trading partners. President Trump hinted at upcoming auto tariffs but suggested exemptions for "a lot of countries," though details remained scarce. The rally extended to crypto stocks, with MicroStrategy and Coinbase surging 10% and 7%, respectively, as bitcoin climbed 4%. Meanwhile, Dun & Bradstreet gained 3% on news of its $7.7 billion acquisition by Clearlake Capital, while Lockheed Martin dipped over 1% after a BofA downgrade. The mixed but bullish session reflected a market eager for clarity—and breathing room—on trade.

US Treasury yields surged on Monday following reports that President Trump’s tariff strategy could adopt a more measured approach than initially feared, lifting market sentiment. The yield on benchmark 10-year notes jumped 8.7 basis points to 4.339%—its sharpest rise since 12 February—halting a four-week streak of declines. The move came as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signalled a more cautious outlook, predicting slower progress on inflation and scaling back his rate-cut expectations to just a quarter-point reduction by year-end. The remarks underscored the delicate balance facing policymakers as they navigate shifting trade dynamics and stubborn price pressures. 

The US dollar strengthened on Monday, with the dollar index rising 0.26% to 104.30, as investors weighed global uncertainties. The euro slipped 0.12% to $1.0801, while the dollar surged 1.54% to 37.956 against the Turkish lira, following the jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival to President Tayyip Erdogan. The move triggered Turkey’s largest protests in over a decade, rattling investor confidence. Elsewhere, the dollar gained 0.9% against the yen, reaching 150.65, while Sterling edged up 0.01% to $1.2916. 

Brent crude oil prices climbed on Monday after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela. US crude gained 1.22% to settle at $69.11 per barrel, while Brent rose 1.16% to close at $73. The move, part of a broader sanctions’ strategy, aims to tighten economic pressure on Venezuelan exports while reshaping global energy trade. In a parallel action, the US administration extended the deadline for Chevron to wind down its operations in Venezuela, offering a temporary reprieve for one of the last major US energy firms in the region.

Day’s Ledger
Economic Data:

• US Conference Board March Consumer Confidence Index
• US February New Home Sales Data

Corporate Actions:

• SIS board to consider buyback
• Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency board to discuss fundraising plans
• Rudrabhishek Enterprises board to discuss fundraising plans

Policy:

• US  FOMC Member Williams Speaks   
• Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• RBI to buy gilts worth ₹500 bln via OMO auction 

Tickers

• ADITYA BIRLA CAPITAL informed that NCLT Ahmedabad approved amalgamation of Aditya Birla Finance with parent company.
• BANK OF INDIA exercised green shoe option of $100 million; funds expected by March 27 for overseas corporate purposes.
• BRIGADE ENTERPRISES acquired 4.4-acre land in East Bengaluru for ₹9.50 billion residential project of 0.6 million sq. ft.
• BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES informed that partial disruption at Jhagadia, Gujarat plant due to March 24 strike; discussions ongoing with workers.
• CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA opened its QIP on March 24 with a floor price of ₹42.62 per share.
• EASY TRIP PLANNERS board approved acquiring 49% in BIG CHARTER; also approved capital infusion in Brazil and Saudi subsidiaries.
• GNFC signed agreement with Thyssenkrupp Udhe India for Weak Nitric Acid-III plant on LEPC basis.
• GRSE signed contract with Carsten Rehder for 7th and 8th multi-purpose vessels in Germany under $108 million deal.
• HCL TECHNOLOGIES announced a strategic partnership with Western Union to set up a tech center in Hyderabad, aiming to boost innovation and talent in financial services.
• HYUNDAI MOTOR INDIA board approved investment of ₹6.94 billion to set up and run a tooling center in India.
• INDUSIND BANK faced ₹301.5 million penalty from CGST & Central Excise; plans to consider appeal.
• NHPC completed trial run of Unit-2 (200 MW) of Parbati-II project; remaining units expected by March 31, 2025.
• PUNJAB & SIND BANK launched QIP on March 24; floor price set at ₹40.38 per share.
• RAIL VIKAS NIGAM emerged lowest bidder for ₹1.16 billion Central Railway OHE upgrade project in Itarsi–Amla section.
• RESTAURANT BRANDS ASIA opened QIP at ₹62.32 per share; base issue size ₹4.00 billion, may go up to ₹5.00 billion.
• SBI LIFE INSURANCE received tax demand of ₹4.31 billion from Income Tax Department for tax and interest.
• SEAMEC announced that part of consortium awarded subsea project by L&T for ONGC; work to complete by May 2026.
• TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS shareholders approved reappointment of SUNIL D’SOUZA as MD & CEO for 5 years from April 4.
• UCO BANK opened QIP issue on March 24 with a floor price of ₹36.07 per share.
• WIPRO launched AI-driven autonomous agents for AGENTFORCE to improve healthcare operations and reduce administrative burdens.

Must Read

• US tariffs looming, India looks at easing non-trade barriers, relaxing Chinese FDI
• Payments Council requests govt to reconsider Zero MDR policy for RuPay Debit, UPI
• Tariffs, market access for agricultural goods on agenda as US trade delegation visits India
• RBI unveils revised guidelines on priority sector
• Centre to abolish 6% equalisation levy on digital ads
• Govt dividends from CPSEs set to log record ₹700 billion in FY25
• Vodafone Idea's debt conversion may be the last resort for government
• Trump says countries that purchase oil from Venezuela will pay 25% tariff on any trade with US
• The probability of a recession is approaching 50%, Deutsche markets survey finds
• Trump Says Auto Tariff Coming, Teases Reciprocal Duty Breaks
• US, Russia wrap up talks on proposed Black Sea ceasefire\

Daily Mantra
Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement. Nothing can be done without hope and confidence. - Helen Keller