Rupee Sees Steepest Fall In Over A Month; Oil Stocks Drag Equities

Highlights 
• SEBI tightens norms for SME IPOs
• Government companies to offer 10% higher dividends in FY26: DIPAM Secretary
• NMDC shares slip 2% as operations slow down due to work-to-rule protest, conciliation pending
• HPCL, BPCL shares fall around 2% as FY25 supplementary demand has no LPG compensation provision
• Bitcoin falls as much as 6.5% as volatility continues after Trump’s bitcoin reserve plan

Indian equity indices erased early gains and closed lower as profit booking in the latter half of the session, coupled with weak global cues, dampened investor sentiment. The broader market also underperformed, with the Midcap index falling over 1%. Market breadth was weak, with the advance-decline ratio at 1:4, signalling widespread selling.

Investors remained cautious ahead of key economic data releases, including CPI data for both India and the US later this week.

SECTORAL PERFORMANCE 
Oil marketing companies (OMCs) came under pressure after the government’s supplementary demand did not include provisions for LPG compensation. The auto sector, especially two-wheeler stocks, also struggled, shedding around 2%.

IndusInd Bank shares dropped 3% after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) granted only a one-year extension for the reappointment of its MD and CEO, raising investor concerns.

Top Gainers	% Change	Top Losers	% Change
NIFTY FMCG	0.2%	NIFTY REALTY	-2.0%
		NIFTY OIL & GAS	-1.9%
		NIFTY CONSUMER DURABLES	-1.8%
		NIFTY AUTO	-1.2%
		NIFTY METAL	-0.9%

Yields on 10-year government bonds edged higher ahead of an anticipated heavy bond supply from various states and upcoming inflation data from India and the US. On Tuesday, 20 states are set to raise ₹495.22 billion via bond sales, exceeding the pre-announced borrowing calendar by ₹110 billion.

Tenure	Today	Previous
10-year Gilt	6.70%	6.69%
5-year gilt	6.62%	6.61%
5-year OIS	5.96%	5.97%

The Indian rupee saw its steepest single-day fall in over a month, depreciating 40 paise against the US dollar due to volatile crude oil prices, global trade uncertainties, and continued foreign fund outflows. Most Asian currencies weakened, led by the Chinese yuan, which declined 0.3% on renewed global trade concerns.

Unit	Today	Previous
Dollar/Rupee	87.33	86.92
Dollar Index	103.67	103.81
1-year Dollar/rupee premium (%)	2.16%	2.11%

OUTLOOK
Indian equities are expected to remain under pressure on Tuesday, weighed down by global headwinds, rising US unemployment rates, and ongoing trade uncertainties. Market volatility is likely to persist in the near term.

The rupee is projected to trade between 87.00 and 87.60, as traders await key economic data releases on Wednesday, including US and India CPI figures.

Key Events & Data On Tuesday 
Economic Data:
- Japan October-December GDP
- EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corporate Actions:
- India Shelter Finance Corpor board to discuss fundraising plans
- BHEL Director (Industrial Systems & Products) Varma and Indian Oil Corp. Director Govil to speak at Gridcon 2025 International Conference (Day 3).

Other Key Events:
- Eurogroup Meetings
- India 20 states to raise ₹495.22 billion via bond sale.