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The Morning Edge

Risk-Off Mood Grips Markets as US-China Trade War Fears Resurface

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

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By Richard Fargose

October 13, 2025 at 1:44 AM IST

GLOBAL MOOD: Risk-off
Drivers: US–China Trade Escalation, Gaza Ceasefire, Safe-Haven Demand

Markets are turned risk-off as renewed US–China trade tensions. The fragile Gaza ceasefire offered a brief respite in the Middle East, but concerns over its durability kept investors cautious. Meanwhile, President Trump’s aggressive trade stance against China reignited fears of a prolonged trade war, unsettling equities, commodities, and emerging market currencies.

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 - India September CPI
 - HCL Technologies Earnings
 - Tata Capital Listing 

THE BIG STORY
A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas held for a third consecutive day on Sunday, raising hopes of a lasting end to months of conflict in Gaza. Thousands of Palestinians travelled north toward Gaza City, the centre of Israeli attacks as anticipation grew over the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. US President Donald Trump is set to address Israel’s parliament, marking a key diplomatic moment in efforts to stabilise the region.

Meanwhile, tensions flared between Washington and Beijing after China denounced Trump’s latest tariffs as “hypocritical” but refrained from imposing fresh levies of its own. The US President’s decision to slap 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and enforce export controls on critical software has reignited trade war fears, sending Big Tech stocks tumbling and shaking global markets. The renewed confrontation threatens to derail a planned Trump–Xi summit later this month, underscoring the fragile state of global economic and geopolitical stability.

Data Spotlight
US consumer sentiment remained largely unchanged in October, with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index inching down slightly to 55.0 from 55.1 in September above expectations of 54.2. Despite the ongoing government shutdown, households showed resilience, though concerns over high prices and a weakening job market persisted. The survey noted that “pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds.” Political divides were evident, as sentiment fell among Democrats but improved among Republicans and independents.

Takeaway: The steady sentiment reading suggests that while Americans are concerned about inflation and job security, the shutdown has yet to significantly dent overall consumer confidence.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

  • US Stocks slides as Trump escalates trade war with China
    • US stocks fell sharply on Friday after President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and new export controls on key US-made software.
    • S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their largest single-day percentage drop since April 10.
    • Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, and AMD all declined more than 2% in after-hours trading.

  • US Treasury yields drop as trade tensions spark safe-haven demand
    • 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.06%, its lowest in nearly three weeks.
    • Investors flocked to safe-haven assets after President Trump threatened steep new tariffs on Chinese imports.
    • The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its third week, has paused key economic data releases, keeping markets cautious.

  • US Dollar slips after Trump’s tariff threats boost Euro and Yen
    • The dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.99 on Friday as Trump’s tariff escalation weakened sentiment toward the greenback.
    • Despite the drop, the dollar was still on track for a 1.66% weekly gain, its largest since September 2024.
    • The Japanese yen strengthened 0.86% to 151.73 per dollar, while the euro rose 0.38% to $1.1607.

  • Crude oil prices drop over 3% on renewed US–China trade tensions
    • Brent crude oil prices fell 3.82% to $62.73 a barrel, the lowest since May 5.
    • US WTI crude dropped 4.24% to $58.90 a barrel, marking its lowest level since early May.
    • President Donald Trump’s threat to impose higher tariffs on China reignited fears of weaker global oil demand.

Day’s Ledger

Economic Data

  • India September CPI
  • US August Construction Spending Data
  • OPEC Monthly Report 

Corporate Actions

  • Jul-Sep Earnings: HCL Technologies, Den Networks,  Just Dial, Anand Rathi Wealth,
  • Spandana Sphoorty Financial to consider fund raising
  • Uniparts India to consider dividend 

Policy Events

  • German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
  • German Buba Balz Speaks

 TICKERS TO WATCH

  • ASIAN PAINTS subsidiary ASIAN WHITE INC. FZE starts commercial production at Fujairah (UAE) plant from Oct 12.
  • AVENUE SUPERMARTS'  Jul-Sep profit up 3.85% to ₹6.85 billion vs ₹6.59 billion; revenue up 15.5% to ₹166.76 billion; EBITDA up 11% to ₹12.14 billion; margin slips 29 bps to 7.28%.
  • AXIS BANK informed RBI issues ‘Letter of Caution’ over KYC lapses; bank says corrective steps implemented.
  • BAJAJ FINSERV Bajaj Life Insurance total premium at ₹13.75 billion; Bajaj General Insurance gross direct premium at ₹22.19 billion in September.
  • COMPUTER AGE MANAGEMENT SERVICES (CAMS)  board approves stock split: 1 equity share (₹10 FV) to be split into 5 shares (₹2 FV) pending shareholder nod.
  • HINDUSTAN CONSTRUCTION COMPANY bags ₹2.04 billion contract from HINDALCO for Aditya Aluminium smelter expansion in Odisha.
  • INFOSYS launches “Customer Experience Suite for Salesforce” to enhance digital transformation and Agentforce solutions.
  • LUPIN informed US FDA inspection at Somerset (New Jersey) facility concludes with one observation after pre-approval audit (Sep 29–Oct 10).
  • MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVELOPERS selected for ₹8 billion Malad (Mumbai) redevelopment; also acquires 13.46 acres in Pune with ₹35 billion development potential.
  • MANKIND PHARMA signs deal to acquire women’s health Rx portfolio from BHARAT SERUMS & VACCINES for ₹7.97 billion via slump sale.
  • NTPC GREEN ENERGY signs MoU with Japan’s ENEOS to supply green methanol and hydrogen derivatives.
  • PHOENIX MILLS  retail consumption up 13%; residential sales rise to ₹1.39 billion vs ₹0.27 billion; collections increase to ₹1.15 billion vs ₹0.60 billion.
  • WAAREE RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES Jul-Sep profit jumps 117.4% to ₹1.16 billion; revenue up 47.7% to ₹7.75 billion.
  • ZEN TECHNOLOGIES wins ₹0.37 billion defence order from Ministry of Defence for anti-drone systems with Hard Kill capabilities. 

MUST READ

 

 

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

 Have a great trading day.

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