Markets Watch Putin-Trump Meeting; Fed Shifts Toward Rate Cuts

GLOBAL MOOD: Risk-On
Drivers: Potential Putin-Trump summit, BRICS diplomacy, Fed Rate Cut Hopes

Markets leaned mildly risk-on as optimism over a potential Putin–Trump summit buoyed sentiment and steadied oil, while strong tech-led gains lifted US stocks. However, caution persisted amid mixed economic signals from China, weak US labour market trends, shifting Fed policy expectations

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 -AMFI July data
 -Earnings: Bata India, BEML, SJVN

THE BIG STORY
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin for about 40 minutes on Saturday, during which Putin shared details of his discussions with the United States and “recent peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine.” The two leaders also discussed BRICS cooperation and the broader international political and economic landscape. Putin has been on a diplomatic push, briefing leaders of China, India, and other allies on his contacts with the US, following a meeting in Moscow with President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff. A potential Putin-Trump summit could take place as early as this week, though no date or venue has been confirmed.

Meanwhile, at the US Federal Reserve, sentiment is shifting toward a more dovish stance following weaker-than-expected labour market data. Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, dissented from the decision to keep rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, citing growing employment concerns. Revisions to May and June job gains to near-recession levels, coupled with soft July numbers and a rise in unemployment to 4.2%, have intensified calls for possible rate cuts as early as September. While some policymakers remain cautious, subtle changes in tone suggest the Fed is leaning closer to easing, aligning with President Trump’s long-standing push for lower borrowing costs.

DATA SPOTLIGHT
China’s consumer prices were unchanged in July 2025 from a year earlier, defying forecasts for a small decline and supported by stronger non-food price gains amid government subsidies. However, food prices fell 1.6%, the sharpest drop since February, led by steep declines in fresh vegetables and eggs. Meanwhile, producer prices contracted 3.6% for the 34th straight month, reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand and ongoing trade frictions with the US, with the sharpest falls in mining and raw material costs.

Takeaway: The data shows that China’s domestic demand remains fragile, with persistent producer deflation and steep food price declines offsetting modest non-food price gains, signalling ongoing economic headwinds despite government support measures.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

• US Stocks advance, Nasdaq hits another record
  
  • Nasdaq posts second straight record close, led by tech gains.
  • Apple jumps 13.3% for the week, biggest gain since 2020, after Trump announces $100 billion US investment plan.

• US Treasury yields rise on fed moves, tariff shifts 
  
  • US Treasury yield climbed 4 bps,  marking its first weekly gain in three weeks.
  • Sentiment driven by weak auctions, tariff shifts, and Fed rate cut bets.
  • Trump nominates Stephen Miran to Fed Board, sparking political influence concerns.

• US dollar edges lower, set for weekly drop
  
  • US dollar slips to 98.2, weekly loss of nearly 0.8% amid Fed expectations, tariffs, and rate cut odds.

• Crude oil prices steady, weekly losses mount
  
  • Brent crude prices steady as traders awaited the Putin–Trump meet
  • Crude recorded their steepest weekly decline since late June amid a tariff-driven weaker economic outlook.

DAY’S LEDGER

Economic Data:

• AMFI July data

Corporate Action:

• Earnings: Aban Offshore, Bata India, BEML, Emkay Global Financial Services, R.P.P. Infra Projects, SJVN, Subex, Tilaknagar Industries, Titagarh Rail Systems, and West Coast Paper Mills
• Lodha Developers to consider fund raising
• Time Technoplast to consider bonus share issue

TICKERS TO WATCH

• HPCL, BPCL, IOC to get ₹300 billion govt compensation for LPG under-recoveries.
• ICICI BANK hikes minimum savings balance to ₹50,000 in metros
• IDFC FIRST BANK gets RBI nod for ₹26.24 billion stake buy by Platinum Invictus
• MANAPPURAM FINANCE profit plunges 76.2% to ₹1.33 billion; revenue down 14.2% to ₹14.07 billion
• SHIPPING CORPORATION OF INDIA profit up 21.5% to ₹3.54 billion; revenue down 13.1% to ₹13.16 billion
• SIEMENS profit slips 3.1% to ₹4.23 billion; revenue up 15.5% to ₹43.47 billion
• TATA MOTORS profit down 30.5% to ₹39.2 billion; revenue falls 2.5% to ₹1,044.1 billion

MUST READ

• Pakistan Army Chief Munir Visits US Again as Ties Gain Momentum
• Trump Tariffs Risk Deepening $6.3 Trillion India-China Stock Gap
• Zelenskiy wins EU, NATO backing as he seeks place at table with Trump and Putin
• India’s last-minute pullout from RCEP offers cues to why the US trade talks have hit a wall
• India must avoid cornering itself amid Trump's bullying
• Mahindra CEO & MD Anish Shah says constructive dissent strengthens company
• LIC's entry into bond FRA market likely to boost long-term G-Secs
• India seeks transparency from China over construction of mega dam on River Brahmaputra
• Comprehensive land reforms needed for India to become manufacturing hub: CII
• Farm futures make headway, as FPOs keen on better price discovery

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

Have a great trading day.

Will cheap Russian oil cost India dearly in Western markets?

As the US threatens tariffs over Russian crude imports, India faces a delicate choice between economic gains, strategic autonomy, and its place in a shifting global order.

Aurko Mahapatra breaks down the numbers and the geopolitics.